Category Archives: Bonds

A Few Basic Tax Terms That ‘The Man’ Doesn’t Want You to Understand

Tax termsIs the American tax code designed to be confusing?

Looking at the thing, it’s hard to escape that conclusion. To begin with, there’s its size: The full code is over 70,000 pages long — 22 times as long as Remembrance of Things Past, 62 times as long as the King James Bible, and 54 times as long as the complete works of William Shakespeare. Or, to put it another way, it’s about 175 times as long as its first edition, which was published in 1913.

Contained within its 3.7 million words are thousands of exemptions, definitions, deductions and loopholes, and teasing them out requires an estimated 7.6 billion hours of tax preparation per year. That’s more than 24 hours for every man, woman and child in the country. Even the head of the IRS hires an accountant to do his taxes.

Given all that, it’s hard to dismiss the notion that the tax code is deliberately designed to confuse the average taxpayer: Its byzantine structure supports an army of accountants and attorneys, computer programmers and bean counters who rake in an estimated $27.7 billion per year helping us prepare our taxes.

But the tax prep industry isn’t the only group that benefits. Arguments about cuts and deductions, minimums and premiums have fueled many a political campaign. And whether you’re inclined to raise tax rates or lower them, increase incentives or decrease exemptions, chances are that you’ve been tripped up at least once or twice by a confusing term — or a slick politician wielding it. With that in mind, we decided to unpack a few of the most weaselly of the IRS’s weasel words — and look at how they may affect your yearly taxpaying ritual.


Income vs. Taxable Income

James RossOne of the most slippery tax phrases is income. Taken at face value, its definition seems obvious — clearly, “income” is supposed to refer to the amount of money that a worker brings home in a year. But in the hands of the tax industry, even this clearest of words becomes cloudy. Recently, The New York Times highlighted this with its tale of the ridiculous tax rate paid by James Ross (right). The founder of an investment firm, Ross paid 102% of his 2010 income to the taxman.

The tale was tailor-made for tax critics: Ross — a job-creator, a graduate of Yale and Columbia, and a one-man economic powerhouse — was clearly being charged a cruel and unusual tax rate. How could the government possibly rob such an upstanding citizen like that? Where do we live, Sweden? By God, Ross had to withdraw money from his savings account to cover his taxes!

Of course, there was more to the story. Ross didn’t actually pay 102% of his income, but rather 102% of his taxable income — the money left over after he subtracted out his mortgage interest, state taxes, and all the other clever deductions and exemptions he was allowed to take from his total income. In fact, Ross actually paid only 20% of his real earnings in 2011 — about 4 percentage points less than the average tax paid by someone at his level. Thanks to his impressive list of deductions and business-related expenses, he actually scored a nice tax cut, rather than the brutal burn that the Times story would at first seem to suggest.

Income should be an straightforward, clear term, but it’s often muddied for political purposes. Total income — the amount of money that one makes in a year — can be hard to quantify, so pundits and politicians tend to focus on more easily-defined terms. For example, depending on a politician’s leanings, he or she may consistently discuss earned income (all the taxable wages and tips that one gets from a job), adjusted gross income (earned income, minus personal exemptions), or taxable income (earned income, minus all exemptions and all deductions). Because wealthy people often have more deductions and exemptions than lower-level earners, changing which term you use can radically alter how you frame any tax debate — not to mention the degree to which the rich seem to be unfairly targeted by the tax code.


Dividends: Qualified to Cause Trouble

By all rights, a dividend should be easy to understand: It’s money that a company pays out to its stockholders, and for most of the modern era, it was generally taxed at the same rate as any other income. Beginning in 2003, however, special tax breaks for stockholders muddied the waters, turning a relatively simple idea into a complicated — and controversial — tax nightmare.

Tax terms

Nowadays, there are two basic classes of dividends — “ordinary” and “qualified.” Ordinary dividends, which come from stocks that have been held for a short period of time, are taxed at the same rate as ordinary income. “Qualified” dividends, on the other hand, come from stocks that have been held for longer periods, and are taxed at a much lower rate.

The differences between the rates are major. People who earn up to $33,950 per year pay a basic tax rate of 10% to 15%. But people who make that money from qualified tax dividends don’t pay any tax on it at all. Meanwhile, those who earn more than $33,951 per year pay between 25% and 35% on their taxes, but those who get that money from qualified dividends pay only 15%. This, by the way, explains how tycoons like Mitt Romney and Warren Buffett reach overall tax rates of 15% or lower, while people who make $34,000 per year pay a base rate of 25%.

While the qualified dividend tax rate is attractive, it is also confusing: The IRS’ rulebook states that qualified dividends must come from stocks that the owner has held “for more than 60 days during the 121-day period that begins 60 days before the ex-dividend date.” But there’s also qualified preferred stock, which must have been held “more than 90 days during the 181-day period that begins 90 days before the ex-dividend date if the dividends are due to periods totaling more than 366 days.”


Interest Gets Too Interesting

As if dividends weren’t confusing enough, some things classed as “dividends” are actually misnamed — and are taxed as regular income. For example, the “dividends” that you get from your credit union or savings and loan bank are actually classed as interest. This money counts as regular income, and is taxed as such.

(Of course, interest income isn’t a huge problem these days. As long as the Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate at or near zero, most financial institutions aren’t going pay much interest to their customers. This, incidentally, is part of why banks have been piling on fees and charges over the last few years. But that’s another story.)

Interest itself is another tax oddity. For example, in the current election cycle, something called “carried interest” has come under scrutiny. Essentially, it’s a payment method used by many hedge funds and investment firms that pays fund managers and execs out of the proceeds of the funds they manage. By linking paychecks directly to investment income instead of salary, carried interest enables these high-earners to pay a 15% tax rate instead of the 35% that wage earners pay. President Obama’s 2013 tax proposal suggests that Congress close the carried interest loophole.

But even regular interest can be confusing. The interest that one gets from a standard bank account, CD or money market account is taxed at the same rate as regular income, but interest from a savings bond doesn’t count until the bond matures or until you redeem it. And, if you use your savings bond interest to pay for some of your college expenses, you may be able to avoid paying taxes on it.

If you own U.S. Treasury bills, notes or bonds, the interest that you get from them is subject to federal tax, but not to state tax. On the other hand, interest on bonds that are issued by states may be exempt from federal tax! For that matter, some of the interest you pay — specifically the interest on your mortgage and your student loans — may be deductible.


Bruce Watson is a senior features writer for DailyFinance. You can reach him by e-mail at bruce.watson@teamaol.com, or follow him on Twitter at @bruce1971.


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Tagged: bonds, carried interest, CarriedInterest, deductions, Dividends, Federal Reserve System, income, Interest, internal revenue service, InternalRevenueService, IRS, James Ross, JamesRoss, qualified

Article source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/02/16/a-few-basic-tax-terms-that-the-man-doesnt-want-you-to-underst/

The Economy Ahead: What to Expect in 2012

What to expect in 2012With 2011 fast coming to a close, it’s time to think about what’s next — if you dare.

The good news is, there’s less talk among the experts of a double-dip recession. But there’s also little sign that it’s time to pop the champagne cork. The general expectation is for the economy to grow between 2% and 2.5% in 2012 — not great, but better than no growth.

Some are even more pessimistic. In the recently released annual Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2012 CFO Outlook, 38% of financial executives at U.S. companies said they expected the U.S. economy to expand in 2012, down from 56% in last year’s survey and 66% the year before. But only 7% predicted layoffs, and some 46% plan to hire — the same percentage as planned to in 2011. And 36% said credit had gotten easier to access, compared to 28% last year.

So, there are positive signs, but uncertainly looms large. In the recent Country Financial Security Index, 30% of respondents said they believed 2012 would be better than 2011, 28% said it would be worse and 32% said about the same.

“Next year will be more about the middle and less about the extremes that we’ve suffered in 2011,” says Mark Lamkin, CEO of Lamkin Wealth Management. Over the last four years, the markets had 2% declines about 100 times more than any other time in SP history. It also recorded 2% daily gains more times that ever before. “Unprecedented was the norm in 2011. Next year will be a year of meeting in the middle.”

Expect a modest, but sustained, recovery. The economy won’t fire on all cylinders though, predicted Alan Levenson, chief economist for T. Rowe Price: There are too many “what ifs?”

Here’s a look at some of the factors that will help determine the fate of 2012.

The Job Market

With unemployment still stuck near 9%, inquiring minds want to know whether 2012 will bring any real relief for job seekers? It may be too close to call. “Job growth picks up in the second half of 2012, but the unemployment rate is expected to be little changed in the fourth quarter of 2012 versus the fourth quarter of this year,” said Levenson.

Eurozone Crisis

The European sovereign debt crisis won’t be solved over night. Some experts are forecasting a mild recession on the Continent, but others go a step further. “Europe will enter a deeper recession with some of the PIIGS [Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain] defaulting and credit downgrades of some major European banks and governments,” says Bill Garrett of Garrett Financial.

The European Central Bank is likely to do either a quantitative easing program, a TARP-style program, or a Eurobond deal if Germany approves, or perhaps a combination of these. “This will put Europe in recession, but avoid a run on banks and a Lehman style event,” says Lamkin.

China Taps the Brakes

Slowing demand from China, combined with Beijing’s ongoing money-tightening measures, is prompting concern that this vital engine of economic activity may lose momentum at an inopportune time for the rest of the world, said Scott Berg, portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price’s Global Large-Cap Stock Fund.

Stock Market Oscillations

For the equities markets, there’s just one word — volatility. The elections, congressional gridlock, and the European debt crisis will be the chief stirrers of the uncertainty pot. “Look for more of the same,” says Mickey Cargile, founder and managing partner of Cargile Investment Management. “Investors will need to be patient and have the courage not to bail out of the stock market. I’ve never seen a stock market that wants to go up as much as this.”

Lamkin is optimistic: “With record earnings in the SP 500 this year, earnings get even better and as confidence returns the P/E’s expand for the market,” he says. “This leads to a total return in stocks of 8% to 12% for 2012.”

Bond Market Inversions

“Risky bonds [will] become ‘safe’ and ‘safe’ [will] become risky,” predicts Lamkin. “Fixed income bonds face headwinds of higher rates before year’s end, six months ahead of the Fed’s schedule.”

Municipal bonds won’t have as good a year in 2012 as they did in 2011, but because of a favorable supply and demand outlook, they should post mid-single-digit gains, says Lamkin.

The government and corporate bond yield gap will narrow, says Frank Fantozzi, CEO of Planned Financial Services. The performance gap between government and corporate bonds will reverse in 2012, with corporate bonds outperforming as they post modest single-digit gains as interest rates rise and credit spreads narrow. He says bond yields may be volatile within a 1.7% to 3% range, but he expects them to rise over the course of the year, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury ending the year around 3%.

Ongoing economic growth will help normalize interest rates, as will a continuation of Fed policy, stable inflation and tightening fiscal policy. The wide gaps between yield on government bonds and other bonds are likely to converge some in 2012, says Fantozzi.

Gold Keeps Going

2011 was a bull year for gold, with record prices topping $1,900. Will they keep rising in 2012? David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report, which focuses on money, metals and mining, believes precious metals will continue to rise because of the inability of the global financial system to do anything other than take the “easiest” way out of the Eurozone debt crisis: debasing the euro, rather than letting massive debt defaults occur.

“I do expect a soft first quarter of 2012,” says Morgan. “More consolidation through the summer and higher prices by year end. $60 silver by year end 2012 and gold over $2400. But it may take a year to get to those prices.”

“If the euro problem does not get resolved in some meaningful way, gold could begin its move much earlier and faster,” says Morgan.

Cargile, on the other hand, says there is no reason to buy gold. “Gold produces no income; it depends on someone buying it for more than you paid. It’s a manipulated market, and volatile.”

Politics As Usual

The U.S. credit rating downgrade was largely caused by political intransigence, and as we roll toward the November elections, it will get harder and harder for the opposing parties in Washington to find common ground. “Political gridlock will continue,” says Cargile. “It’s working for them, but it isn’t for us.”

But there’s the possibility that as the election nears, Obama and the GOP nominee will leave behind the extremes and meet in the middle, which business likes, says Lamkin. “If voters vote accordingly, the most important budget decisions since World War II will be made with the right candidates with a bipartisan banner. After the election, I believe the market will have a strong fourth quarter based on this meeting in the middle and optimistic outlook.”

Housing Begins Its Rebound

The first half of 2012 may be the last great opportunity to purchase a home at the lowest market prices we have seen in many years, and at the lowest interest rates we can remember, says Scott Cramer, endowment strategist and president of Cramer Rauchegger.

From October 2010 to October 2011, the inventory of existing homes for sale dropped from 3.8 million homes to 3.3 million. That’s still an excess of inventory, but we could see a major jump in home sales next year as banks realize that the homes they are holding on to will sell, giving them an incentive to release their inventory more quickly, he says. This could lead to the beginning of a slight increase in home prices by late 2012. The Fed also stated recently that it could ease off its commitment to leave interest rates unchanged until 2013, and could slightly increase rates before the end of 2012.

The Smart Moves for You in 2012

So what does all this mean to you? The experts weighed in on smart moves to make in light of the conventional wisdom about what to expect next year.

• Seek dividends: One problem companies share with individuals is that their bank deposits aren’t making them any money. So some of those earnings are getting paid out in dividends to shareholders. There are many solid, well-run companies with great balance sheets paying more than 4% on an annual basis.

• Consider small and mid-cap U.S. stocks: These should provide attractive returns for investors in 2012, in part due to mergers and acquisitions activity powered by large corporate cash reserves.

• Skip emerging markets … or not: The jury’s still out on emerging markets. Some experts say to avoid them, “Buy domestic, not emerging markets or Europe. Buy what you understand. U.S. corporations are strong,” says Cargile. But other experts think they’re returns will exceed those of developed markets. Long term, emerging markets offer intriguing growth prospects.

• Get creative
: You may have dismissed bonds because with a fixed income vehicle, the interest rate is locked in and principal will be negatively impacted by inflation. However, a step-up bond starts with one rate, then increases after a period of time. This gives the fixed income investor a degree of inflation protection, says Cary Guffey, a financial adviser with NBC Securities.

• Keep up good habits: The recession tamed consumer spending, sparked saving and inspired us to pay down debt. Don’t stop in 2012. Start or continue building your emergency fund until you have at least six months of living expenses stashed. Diversify. Stay cool when it comes to the stock market. The wild ride is far from over. Rethink any rash moves motivated by emotions.

Mostly, be ready for anything.


Correction: A previous version of this story referred to Mickey Cargile’s firm as WNB Private Client Service. In 2011, that company changed its name to Cargile Investment Management.


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Tagged: 2012, bonds, china, Dividends, economy, emerging markets, EmergingMarkets, Europe, Eurozone debt crisis, EurozoneDebtCrisis, Finance, investing, presidential election, PresidentialElection, real

Article source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/12/28/the-economy-ahead-what-to-expect-in-2012/

How to Profit From the Biggest Potential Crises of 2012

Best of 2011 2012Depending on how you view things, we either are in heaps of trouble economically or about to emerge from a terrible recession. Personally, I think it’s the former. I always like to have a few trades on my watch list to take advantage of possible crises, as uncertainty creates opportunity. So in looking ahead for 2012, I’m looking to exploit other people’s woes like the good capitalist I am.

Here are three bets I’d be pretty comfortable researching in greater detail and possibly pull the trigger on:

Bill Gross, of the famed PIMCO funds, has been a bond guy all his life, and he went bearish on bonds earlier this year. Hell froze over. You can see this either as capitulation or an ominous warning. I am very wary of municipal bonds. Our own country’s debt crisis has reached all the way down to municipalities.

When it was revealed that the bond insurers did not have nearly the capital necessary to make payouts on defaulted collateralized debt obligations during the mortgage crisis, I lost all faith in bond insurers. To me, there is an equivalent risk and higher reward with preferred stocks. By purchasing a basket in an ETF such as iShares SP Preferred Stock Index Fund (NYSE:PFF), you give yourself a 7% yield with minimal volatility. Get out if interest rates rise significantly, though.

Underfollowed and under-read fund manager Robert Rodriguez is a genius. He thinks we’re headed for more recession next year, and Congress has been inept in its handling of fiscal policy. I agree. He hates bonds right now, except for very short-duration bonds, and so do I. Prices are near a double-top. I think bond prices will get hit next year, so I might short the iShares Barclays 20+ Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE:TLT).

Going hand-in-hand with our economic crisis has been the decline of the dollar. That trend will continue. That means you can short the dollar via PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE:UDN).

The real question at hand is this: Why the heck is the market doing so well in the face of really bad economic times? If you read my recent series on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, you know about several Dow stocks that would make for good long-term additions to a portfolio. That is the key to understanding investment in the market going forward — careful individual stock picking. Go with large-caps in general, and only go with small-caps that are directly benefiting from the situation. As for other systemic shocks that might or might not happen, have your trigger finger ready for these possibilities.

I expect some trigger event to knock the market down 20%. Perhaps it will come from Europe. Or, if Obamacare is upheld by the Supreme Court, expect the market to correct significantly. It will be a sign that overreaching regulation and legislation is acceptable to the High Court, and that’s bad for business. However, if it is overturned, then go long Health Care SPDR (NYSE:XLV). Likewise, should Obama be re-elected, the market will react badly. So look at ProShares Short SP 500 (NYSE:SH). If Obama is kicked out and the GOP takes over Congress, I expect a market surge, so you could go long the market with SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY).

Stay far away from financials. There might be another big shock coming to the system. I am wary of Bank of America‘s (NYSE:BAC) stability, and certain sources tell me that the bad behavior of bond insurers, reinsurers and investment banks hasn’t changed a bit. If you want to make an aggressive bet on this arena, double-short financials via ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE:SKF).

Finally, if you really want to bet against improvement in the global economic situation, believe Obama will be re-elected, that Europe will crater, that commodity prices will once again skyrocket, and that the dollar will crash, then you can short the market big-time via ProShares UltraPro Short SP 500 Index Fund (NASDAQ:SPXU) and ProShares UltraPro Short Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ:SQQQ). These babies give you 3x leverage on your short bet.

Of course, all of these are highly speculative plays based on highly speculative crises of 2012. As always, do your own research and, for Heaven’s sake, use stop-losses.

Lawrence Meyers does not hold a position in any securities mentioned but may have a position in several stocks the ETFs own. Check out InvestorPlace.com’s other looks back at 2011 and ahead to 2012 here.

Article source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/12/12/how-to-profit-from-the-biggest-potential-crises-of-2012/

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