With 2011 fast coming to a close, it’s time to think about what’s next — if you dare.

The good news is, there’s less talk among the experts of a double-dip recession. But there’s also little sign that it’s time to pop the champagne cork. The general expectation is for the economy to grow between 2% and 2.5% in 2012 — not great, but better than no growth.

Some are even more pessimistic. In the recently released annual Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2012 CFO Outlook, 38% of financial executives at U.S. companies said they expected the U.S. economy to expand in 2012, down from 56% in last year’s survey and 66% the year before. But only 7% predicted layoffs, and some 46% plan to hire — the same percentage as planned to in 2011. And 36% said credit had gotten easier to access, compared to 28% last year.

So, there are positive signs, but uncertainly looms large. In the recent Country Financial Security Index, 30% of respondents said they believed 2012 would be better than 2011, 28% said it would be worse and 32% said about the same.

“Next year will be more about the middle and less about the extremes that we’ve suffered in 2011,” says Mark Lamkin, CEO of Lamkin Wealth Management. Over the last four years, the markets had 2% declines about 100 times more than any other time in SP history. It also recorded 2% daily gains more times that ever before. “Unprecedented was the norm in 2011. Next year will be a year of meeting in the middle.”

Expect a modest, but sustained, recovery. The economy won’t fire on all cylinders though, predicted Alan Levenson, chief economist for T. Rowe Price: There are too many “what ifs?”

Here’s a look at some of the factors that will help determine the fate of 2012.

The Job Market

With unemployment still stuck near 9%, inquiring minds want to know whether 2012 will bring any real relief for job seekers? It may be too close to call. “Job growth picks up in the second half of 2012, but the unemployment rate is expected to be little changed in the fourth quarter of 2012 versus the fourth quarter of this year,” said Levenson.

Eurozone Crisis

The European sovereign debt crisis won’t be solved over night. Some experts are forecasting a mild recession on the Continent, but others go a step further. “Europe will enter a deeper recession with some of the PIIGS [Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain] defaulting and credit downgrades of some major European banks and governments,” says Bill Garrett of Garrett Financial.

The European Central Bank is likely to do either a quantitative easing program, a TARP-style program, or a Eurobond deal if Germany approves, or perhaps a combination of these. “This will put Europe in recession, but avoid a run on banks and a Lehman style event,” says Lamkin.

China Taps the Brakes

Slowing demand from China, combined with Beijing’s ongoing money-tightening measures, is prompting concern that this vital engine of economic activity may lose momentum at an inopportune time for the rest of the world, said Scott Berg, portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price’s Global Large-Cap Stock Fund.

Stock Market Oscillations

For the equities markets, there’s just one word — volatility. The elections, congressional gridlock, and the European debt crisis will be the chief stirrers of the uncertainty pot. “Look for more of the same,” says Mickey Cargile, founder and managing partner of Cargile Investment Management. “Investors will need to be patient and have the courage not to bail out of the stock market. I’ve never seen a stock market that wants to go up as much as this.”

Lamkin is optimistic: “With record earnings in the SP 500 this year, earnings get even better and as confidence returns the P/E’s expand for the market,” he says. “This leads to a total return in stocks of 8% to 12% for 2012.”

Bond Market Inversions

“Risky bonds [will] become ‘safe’ and ‘safe’ [will] become risky,” predicts Lamkin. “Fixed income bonds face headwinds of higher rates before year’s end, six months ahead of the Fed’s schedule.”

Municipal bonds won’t have as good a year in 2012 as they did in 2011, but because of a favorable supply and demand outlook, they should post mid-single-digit gains, says Lamkin.

Tagged: 2012, bonds, china, Dividends, economy, emerging markets, EmergingMarkets, Europe, Eurozone debt crisis, EurozoneDebtCrisis, Finance, investing, presidential election, PresidentialElection, real

Article source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/12/28/the-economy-ahead-what-to-expect-in-2012/

Depending on how you view things, we either are in heaps of trouble economically or about to emerge from a terrible recession. Personally, I think it’s the former. I always like to have a few trades on my watch list to take advantage of possible crises, as uncertainty creates opportunity. So in looking ahead for 2012, I’m looking to exploit other people’s woes like the good capitalist I am.

Here are three bets I’d be pretty comfortable researching in greater detail and possibly pull the trigger on:

Bill Gross, of the famed PIMCO funds, has been a bond guy all his life, and he went bearish on bonds earlier this year. Hell froze over. You can see this either as capitulation or an ominous warning. I am very wary of municipal bonds. Our own country’s debt crisis has reached all the way down to municipalities.

When it was revealed that the bond insurers did not have nearly the capital necessary to make payouts on defaulted collateralized debt obligations during the mortgage crisis, I lost all faith in bond insurers. To me, there is an equivalent risk and higher reward with preferred stocks. By purchasing a basket in an ETF such as iShares SP Preferred Stock Index Fund (NYSE:PFF), you give yourself a 7% yield with minimal volatility. Get out if interest rates rise significantly, though.

Underfollowed and under-read fund manager Robert Rodriguez is a genius. He thinks we’re headed for more recession next year, and Congress has been inept in its handling of fiscal policy. I agree. He hates bonds right now, except for very short-duration bonds, and so do I. Prices are near a double-top. I think bond prices will get hit next year, so I might short the iShares Barclays 20+ Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE:TLT).

Going hand-in-hand with our economic crisis has been the decline of the dollar. That trend will continue. That means you can short the dollar via PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE:UDN).

The real question at hand is this: Why the heck is the market doing so well in the face of really bad economic times? If you read my recent series on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, you know about several Dow stocks that would make for good long-term additions to a portfolio. That is the key to understanding investment in the market going forward — careful individual stock picking. Go with large-caps in general, and only go with small-caps that are directly benefiting from the situation. As for other systemic shocks that might or might not happen, have your trigger finger ready for these possibilities.

I expect some trigger event to knock the market down 20%. Perhaps it will come from Europe. Or, if Obamacare is upheld by the Supreme Court, expect the market to correct significantly. It will be a sign that overreaching regulation and legislation is acceptable to the High Court, and that’s bad for business. However, if it is overturned, then go long Health Care SPDR (NYSE:XLV). Likewise, should Obama be re-elected, the market will react badly. So look at ProShares Short SP 500 (NYSE:SH). If Obama is kicked out and the GOP takes over Congress, I expect a market surge, so you could go long the market with SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY).

Stay far away from financials. There might be another big shock coming to the system. I am wary of Bank of America‘s (NYSE:BAC) stability, and certain sources tell me that the bad behavior of bond insurers, reinsurers and investment banks hasn’t changed a bit. If you want to make an aggressive bet on this arena, double-short financials via ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE:SKF).

Finally, if you really want to bet against improvement in the global economic situation, believe Obama will be re-elected, that Europe will crater, that commodity prices will once again skyrocket, and that the dollar will crash, then you can short the market big-time via ProShares UltraPro Short SP 500 Index Fund (NASDAQ:SPXU) and ProShares UltraPro Short Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ:SQQQ). These babies give you 3x leverage on your short bet.

Of course, all of these are highly speculative plays based on highly speculative crises of 2012. As always, do your own research and, for Heaven’s sake, use stop-losses.

Lawrence Meyers does not hold a position in any securities mentioned but may have a position in several stocks the ETFs own. Check out InvestorPlace.com’s other looks back at 2011 and ahead to 2012 here.

Article source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/12/12/how-to-profit-from-the-biggest-potential-crises-of-2012/

NEW YORK (AP) – Ask the people who invest billions for a living to name their favorite picks for 2012 and you’ll get a smorgasbord worthy of a holiday party: Brazilian stocks, U.S. junk bonds, and government debt from Colombia. Ask them what they dislike and they’ll name one of the top-performing investments this year: U.S. government bonds.

Investors can rattle off a long list of reasons to avoid Treasurys. They pay next to nothing and are bound to plunge in value whenever interest rates begin climbing from their historically low levels. It seems nobody likes Treasurys, yet everybody keeps buying them anyway.

“Our least favorite asset is Treasurys,” said Christine Hurtsellers, chief investment officer for fixed-income at ING Investment Management during a recent press briefing. “We still have a lot, but it’s hard to make the argument for them.”

It’s a tricky problem for bond-fund managers at a time when everyday Americans are trusting them with more of their savings. Among investors, there’s a solid belief that Treasury prices must fall and push interest rates up at some point. But those who have bet on a Treasury market collapse this year got burned.

Bill Gross, the bond-world version of investment sage Warren Buffett, dropped nearly all Treasury holdings from the fund he manages at Pimco in early 2011. He argued that if Republicans held up lifting the government’s borrowing limit, the country would risk default. Borrowing rates would spike as the world’s investors dropped U.S. government debt, just as they have in Europe.

Most of what Gross predicted came true. The debt-limit fight raised worries about default and led to Standard Poor’s taking away the country’s AAA credit rating in early August. But instead of spiking, U.S. borrowing rates plunged as traders sold everything else to buy U.S. government debt. The race into Treasurys helped drive the entire bond market up 3.8 percent from July to September. Gross got the big picture right but his big bet against Treasurys didn’t pan out. Pimco’s Total Return Fund lost 1.2 percent, its worst quarterly performance in three years.

It’s been a recurring story since the financial crisis hit in 2008. For three years running, pundits have predicted that investors will eventually refuse to finance the U.S. government’s $15 trillion in debt and the Treasury market will collapse. But worries over the U.S. economy and the perilous state of Europe’s financial system keep drawing banks and money managers from around the world back to the U.S. dollar and Treasurys.

That demand continues to push U.S. government bond prices up, the main reason why the Treasury market has returned 8.5 percent this year, despite microscopic yields, according to Bank of America (BAC)-Merrill Lynch data. The benchmark for stock market funds, the SP 500 index, has returned less than 1 percent, including dividend payments, and that’s with a 7.4 percent surge over the past week.

“It’s been a pretty strong year for bonds,” said Michael Gitlin, director of fixed income at T. Rowe Price, “and it’s largely a result of Treasurys.”

Judging by the gauges money managers usually check before making a move, buying Treasurys still looks like a bad idea. Consider this sample:

• The benchmark 10-year Treasury pays just 2 percent a year. Take inflation into account and the payout on Treasurys equals negative 1.5 percent, what finance types call the real rate.
• Treasury yields pay less than top-grade corporate bonds at 3.7 percent and even less than the stock market’s 2 percent dividend yield.

“My colleagues say there’s little value in 10-year (Treasurys) and I’d agree,” Gitlin said. “People have been saying there’s a fixed-income bubble. No, there’s a Treasury bubble.”

If there’s so little to like about U.S. government bonds, why are the world’s investors still buying Treasurys instead of dumping them? In a word, it’s Europe.

As the crisis seemed to spread from country to country this year, the world’s traders plowed more money into Treasurys. The higher the demand for U.S. debt, the lower the interest rate, or yield. So when it looked like Greece might default on its debts earlier this year, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note sank below 3 percent. And when attention turned to Italy and its government debts the yield sank even further, dipping below 2 percent in September. The shift of money out of Europe and into the U.S. has pushed Europe’s borrowing rates to dangerous levels while causing U.S. interest rates to sink.

“You can hate the budget situation and hate the low yield, but if there’s a panic it’s the asset that outperforms,” said Robert Robis, head of fixed-income strategy at ING Investment Management (ING).

A good reason to hold Treasurys, in other words, is that the Treasury market remains the world’s favorite hiding spot. So, for many fund managers Treasurys aren’t exactly an investment. Buying Treasurys is like taking out an insurance contract, Robis said. They’re protection against global financial trouble.

The ING Global Bond fund, for instance, has 15 percent of its $641 million in Treasurys, less than the 20 percent in the benchmark Barclay’s bond index. Robis said having none would be like betting European governments will come to a quick solution to the region’s debt crisis and that the U.S. economy will soon recover its health.

“There’s still a need to hold Treasurys,” Robis said. “Just don’t expect to make a fortune off them.”

Tagged: Bill Gross, BillGross, bond market, bond markets, BondMarket, BondMarkets, bonds, Money Managers, MoneyManagers, PIMCO, us bonds, US debt, US Treasuries, UsBonds, UsDebt, UsTreasuries

Article source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/12/05/us-debt-money-managers-least-favorite-investment/