Mortgage Rates improved marginally from yesterday’s new all-time lows.  Without any major scheduled events to digest, bond markets were left to their own devices and paid a decent amount of attention to a sell-off in stocks.  When yields in the broader bond markets move lower, MBS (the “mortgage-backed securities” that most directly influence lenders’ rates) tend to move lower in yield as well, allowing lenders to off lower costs, lower rates, or a combination of the two.

With the recent move lower to a 3.75% Best-Execution level for 30yr Fixed Conventional loans, today’s improvements were seen more in the form of decreased borrowing costs, or increased lender credit, as the case may be.  If you’re a first-time or even frequent reader looking for a bit more clarity on “best-execution,” we just updated the background page: What is A Best-Execution Mortgage Rate? 

For a long time, 3.875% had been “the wall” for Best-Execution mortgage rates.  We’d seen fleeting moments of 3.75% on a few days in late January and early February, but nothing sustainable.  That makes today record-breaking, in the sense that we’re now in the longest stretch of consecutive days with a 3.75% Best-Execution rate for 30yr Fixed Conventional loans.

One of the reasons for the long-standing “wall” was/is the structure of the mortgage-backed-securities market.  We’ve talked extensively about “buckets” in the past (read more HERE) and the difficulties associated with getting newer and lower buckets ‘open for business’ is at the core of this structural problem.  Recent market movements driven by Euro-zone panic and increased possibilities of further Fed stimulus have been persistent enough as to increase the water-level in that previously relatively empty bucket.  It’s a slow process to fill it, and will continue to be, but it has been happening piece by piece.

Here’s the important point of this discussion: That bucket has to CONTINUE to be a safe and logical place for investors to keep their metaphorical ‘water,’ and that phenomenon relies on European panic generally remaining high and the domestic economy generally moving sideways to backwards as opposed to progressing slowly.  This CAN happen, and rates could move even lower as a result.  Even without 10yr yields moving lower, mortgage rates could benefit simply from some assurance that other interest rates have reason to stay where they are.  

Whether or not that’s a risk worth waiting for is less certain.  Forced to rely mostly on past precedent, and to some extent in the assumptions about the structure of the mortgage market, we CAN BE reasonably sure that given an ideal interest rate scenario, mortgage rates will not move lower at this point as fast as they would move higher given merely a moderately negative scenario.  In other words, we’re definitely not ruling out further improvement, but we are making not that there has been and will continue to be diminishing returns on the risk of waiting for it.

Loan Originator Perspective With Rates At All Time Lows

Brett Boyke, Senior Mortgage Banker, Wintrust Mortgage

From past experience this is a nervous time for both borrowers and loan officers – when rates are on the precipice of breaking new lows, borrowers are nervous about locking in to early in fear of missing out on a better rate/fee combo. Conversely, loan officers can’t know for sure if this type of move is a flash in the pan or the beginning of a sustained march lower. Thus making our jobs more difficult as a trusted advisor.

Julian Hebron Branch Manager, Loan Agent,  RPM Mortgage

We’re near the low but Treasury techs suggest a few ticks lower for MBS and rates is possible. The “when” is harder to determine. Consumers can’t go wrong with current record lows but if you’re going to wait, at least study the Refi Roadmap now so you can avoid surprises

Mike Owens, Partner with HorizonFinancial, Inc.

I’ve always been a lock it and play it safe originator, but right now I’m 50/50. Rates just keep edging down and I’m actually going to floating short term just to see what plays out. The lock trigger is ready in case, but floating seems safe for now.

Bob Van Gilder, Originator, Finance One

It is the best time in history to take advantage of unprecedented low mortgage interest rates.  Some think, “I’ll wait, rates will go lower.” That kind of thinking often results in missing out. If you like what you are being quoted by a reputable professional, take it! And remember, patience is key in this new Lending environment.

Matt Hodges Loan Officer,  Presidential Mortgage Group

I’ve said it before – if you have an attractive offered rate which improves your situation like lowering your payment significantly or provides some cash out for renovations, take it and don’t look back. Chasing the bottom of the rates is a losing proposition. You might get lucky, but at all time lows, chances are better that you will end up with a higher rate than you hoped.

Ted Rood, Senior Mortgage Consultant, Wintrust

Bought some gas here yesterday at $3.47. Crude continues to drop, yet gas is $3.69 today. Lesson here is that user prices for both mortgages and gas don’t always behave logically. If you’ve got pricing you’re happy with, take the money and run!

Victor Burek, Mortgage Planner, Benchmark Mortgage

With mortgage rates at these levels, how can you not lock? Rates have held at these levels for a few days and pressure is building. If the pressure gives and rates move higher, they will move higher very quickly. Many consumers want to lock at the rock bottom, but one very large problem with that is you don’t know the bottom is here until it is gone, then its too late.

Today’s BEST-EXECUTION Rates 

• 30YR FIXED –  3.75%
• FHA/VA -3.75%
• 15 YEAR FIXED –  3.125 edging down to 3.00%
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.625-3. 25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

• Rates and costs continue to operate near all time best levels
• Current levels have experienced increasing resistance in improving much from here
• Rates could easily move higher or lower, but given the nearness to all time lows, there’s generally more risk than reward regarding floating
• But that will always be the case when rates operate near all-time levels, and as 2011 showed us, it doesn’t always mean they’re done improving.
• (As always, please keep in mind that our talk of Best-Execution always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There can be all sorts of reasons that your quoted rate would not be the same as our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/259888.aspx

Mortgage Rates hit new all-time lows today.  In most cases, lenders’ offerings are just slightly better across the board than they were in late January, the last time we officially noted “new all-time lows,” though some lenders are not quite back to their previous best levels.  A much weaker-than-expected reading on a widely followed report on business conditions in the mid-Atlantic region gave rates markets a bit of an early jolt lower.  From there, an absence of additional data gave way to technical momentum, helping rates even lower.

Markets are facing tremendous uncertainty over the eventual outcome of Greek elections in June as well as the fate of the Spanish banking sector.  Today, Spain saw their own version of the “run on banks” that occurred in Greece yesterday, reminding traders that, even if Greece makes it out of this mess still in the Euro-zone, that there are bigger fish to fry.  

All that uncertainty has investors piling into safe-haven assets.  In a global economy where a currency as massive as the Euro is in serious trouble due to problems in one small Euro-zone country, investors are just looking for a safe place to park their assets.  US Treasuries have been one such place and their recent rally benefits other products in that same medicine cabinet, such as MBS (the “mortgage backed securities” that most directly influence rates).

Apart from Europe, there’s also the consideration of Fed policy in the US.  Whether or not the Fed extends recent quantitative easing measures or embarks on new ones is a matter of great concern to bond markets.  At the last policy announcement, the door was left open for additional easing as-needed, and yesterday’s “minutes” from that policy meeting essentially confirmed that open door.  Markets perceive that “as needed” bit as becoming more and more “needed” if the Fed sees signs in the domestic economy like the one seen this morning’s weak data.  So when investors think the Fed is more likely to buy more fixed-income investments, rates stay low or move lower, all other things being equal. 

Any way you account for the causes, the bottom line is that mortgage rates are lower.  We’d probably say that 3.75% is the new Best-Execution for 30yr Fixed loans over the past few days and really cemented that today.  Keep in mind, of course, that while we generally think Europe will continue to weigh on markets, keeping rates fairly contained in this new, low range, that “cement” can always be broken if sufficient force is applied.  We’re fond of mentioning the increasing barriers to improvement at current levels.  We don’t think rates can’t improve, just that it will be slow going, and with risks of periodic bounces back.  

Loan Originator Perspective With Rates At All Time Lows

Alan Craft, Loan Officer at Integrity Home Loan of Central Florida

These are the best rates we have ever seen. No reason not lock and take advantage. Is it possible they could go lower? Yes it is possible, but I feel there is a much better chance of worse than better.

Ted Rood, Senior Mortgage Consultant, Wintrust

The biggest drawback to falling rates (as we’ve seen for a while now) is that borrowers can be lulled into a false sense of security. It doesn’t do a borrower any good to stay at a high rate with the hope of getting a new rate 1/4% better than has ever been available. In the equities market, trying to time stock prices to buy at the absolute lowest price is called “catching a falling knife”, and it applies to mortgages as well. If you’re at a high rate now, and can profit from a refi today, waiting costs you money since you’re continuing to pay a higher rate than necessary. In my experience, catching falling knives is not a fun thing to do!

Mike Owens, Partner with HorizonFinancial, Inc.

I’ve always been a lock it and play it safe originator, but right now I’m 50/50. Rates just keep edging down and I’m actually going to floating short term just to see what plays out. The lock trigger is ready in case, but floating seems safe for now.

Matt Hodges Loan Officer,  Presidential Mortgage Group

The mortgage market is really intriguing right now. Rates have been in slow decline over several weeks, yet there’s a persistent fear of a spike upwards with any positive news. Meanwhile, we keep wondering “Where/when will 3.5% or lower be readily available for clients with 0 points?” Volatility and volume have limited the improvements. For the time being, at 30 days or less to closing, lock bias is firmly in place.

Jason York, Vice President of VA Operations at Prime Mortgage Lending, Inc

With where we currently are, I am locking loans that I would typically continue to float.

Kent Mikkola, Mortgage Consultant ,  M M Mortgage, LLC #213677

Improving rate environments tend to lull us into a false sense of security and often 1 day can wipe out the gains that were made over several weeks. As they say, “a bird in the hand…”

Jeff Statz Mortgage Advisor,  Network Funding, L.P.

Locking most now…stay vigilant for pricing to hold for FHA 6/11 Streamline changes

Today’s BEST-EXECUTION Rates 

• 30YR FIXED –  3.75%
• FHA/VA -3.75%
• 15 YEAR FIXED –  3.125 edging down to 3.00%
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.625-3. 25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

• Rates and costs continue to operate near all time best levels
• Current levels have experienced increasing resistance in improving much from here
• Rates could easily move higher or lower, but given the nearness to all time lows, there’s generally more risk than reward regarding floating
• But that will always be the case when rates operate near all-time levels, and as 2011 showed us, it doesn’t always mean they’re done improving.
• (As always, please keep in mind that our talk of Best-Execution always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There can be all sorts of reasons that your quoted rate would not be the same as our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/259696.aspx

Mortgage Rates are steady to slightly improved today following as Europe’s fiscal woes continue providing downward pressure on US interest rates.  The forces at work keeping rates low were joined today by “minutes” from the most recent FOMC meeting.  All told, several notable lenders are offering their all-time lowest interest rates while others remain close.  

Markets actually got off to a shaky start as far as rates were concerned.  Had it not been for the European headlines and the FOMC Minutes, we’d likely be looking at slightly higher rates today.  Mortgage-backed-securities (aka “MBS,” the most direct influence on mortgage rates) and US Treasuries began the day in weaker territory until news that the European Central Bank had ceased it’s normal interactions with several Greek banks, and the ECB President essentially wasn’t willing to bend over backwards to make sure Greece stays in the Euro-zone.  We discussed the implications of a Greek Euro-zone exit in yesterday’s post.  

The ECB-related news helped bond markets bounce back into stronger territory and FOMC Minutes added to that momentum.  Though there were no major surprises out of the Fed, the Minutes indicated that the Fed remained in sort of uncertain territory with respect to further quantitative easing, which thus far, has been a major boon for rates.

Markets were perhaps guarded against the possibility that the Minutes would indicate a shift AWAY from an accommodative stance.  The fact that the minutes did no such thing, combined with the consideration that this meeting took place BEFORE the most recent bout of Euro-drama was enough for markets to infer a slightly economically bearish bias from the Fed, and the Fed combats economic bearishness by keeping rates low.  

For only the 3rd time since early February, the Conventional 30yr Fixed Best-Execution Rate is arguably straddling 3.75% and 3.875%.  Some lenders’ rate sheets are structured such that 3.75% is clearly Best-Execution.  More have moved down into that territory, though many remain at 3.875%.  (read more about Best-Execution calculations)

Until and unless mortgage rates actually break into NEW all-time lows (which they are very close to doing), we’ll likely keep reiterating that which has already been said:

We see two diametrically opposed forces pushing and pulling on mortgage rates here at these key levels.  The European component is the obvious force pushing rates down, but less obvious is the underlying structure of the Secondary Mortgage Market providing resistance to moving lower.  The latter is what has prevented rates from getting any lower now and in the past.

That said, if the economic outlook remains fairly dim and if European concerns continue to fuel that “flight-to-safety” demand for long enough, the Secondary Mortgage Market CAN slowly evolve to accommodate lower rates.  It remains to be seen whether or not it will actually happen.  Global economic panic is not our favorite justification for thinking rates will move predictably lower.

Investors in the secondary mortgage market have demonstrated that they tend to feel the same way, having clearly avoided a quick move down into uncharted territory with respect to the “buckets” on the secondary mortgage market.  Read more about “buckets” HERE.  Without a more stable motivation for low interest rates, we’d expect ongoing progress in creating a market for even lower rates to continue to be slow and small.  

Today’s BEST-EXECUTION Rates 

• 30YR FIXED –  3.75-3.875%
• FHA/VA -3.75%
• 15 YEAR FIXED –  3.125 edging down to 3.00%
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.625-3. 25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

• Rates and costs continue to operate near all time best levels
• Current levels have experienced increasing resistance in improving much from here
• Rates could easily move higher or lower, but given the nearness to all time lows, there’s generally more risk than reward regarding floating
• But that will always be the case when rates operate near all-time levels, and as 2011 showed us, it doesn’t always mean they’re done improving.
• (As always, please keep in mind that our talk of Best-Execution always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There can be all sorts of reasons that your quoted rate would not be the same as our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/259479.aspx