Category Archives: News

CoreLogic Sees Signs of Credit Cracks

Here we go again? 

Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s deputy chief
economist, says loan performance is beginning to show some cracks in what has
been a near perfect veneer.  This might
be an early signal of a downturn in the credit cycle.  Khater is not issuing a warning, merely
alerting those who should be watching such things to pay attention.

He writes, in an article in the CoreLogic Insights blog, that a typical economic
expansion and recession are strongly driven by loan performance.  When times are good, lenders take on more
marginal borrowers then tend to become more conservative when loan performance
begins to deteriorate.  That often
exacerbates
an economic downturn.

Loan performance across the four major
types of loans (agricultural, business, personal consumption, and real estate)
all improved throughout the first five years of the expansion.  Then, over the last year, performance of the
first three loan types began to slip.  Real
estate loans bucked the trend, continuing to improve.  Now, Khater says, there are small signs that
their pristine levels of performance could be deteriorating.

Mortgage performance is typical measured
by levels of delinquency and foreclosure but those, Khater says, are both
backward looking and lag as indicators. 
One way to address that is through transition rate analysis.  This method controls for time by looking, in
the case of his analysis, at loan vintage, i.e. production within a given year,
which he says, allows for a much more nuanced view of performance.

By focusing on only those loans produced
in the first 10 months of each year in question allowed Khater to include 2016 data
in his analysis.  His justification for
the short and early time frame is that historically the first six to nine months
of a loan’s performance have a very strong persistence, and loans tend to
remain on a similar track
years later. 
He starts his analysis with 2010 as the first full year of the expansion
vintages and says underwriting has remained roughly similar since then.

He sees three
trends emerging from his analysis of these six vintages.  The loans originated in 2016 were the first
where the serious delinquency rate after 10 months was higher than in the previous
year.  Second, there is clear clustering
in those years when the economy was weaker compared with the other economies.  The first two years, when the economy was
still recoverying and falling home prices had not yet turned the corner, loans
had a 0.32 serious delinqeucy rate compared to 2012 through 2014 where the rate
averaged 0.21 percent. Then in 2015, with the economy recovering, job creation
picking up and home prices flying, the loans originated that year had the
lowest serious deliquency rate in two decades, 0.13 percent.  

Last year economic growth slowed a
full percentage point
and Khater says, “affordability cracks began to show.  The serious delinquency rate for the 2016
vintage worsened, rising to 0.17 percent at the 10-month mark.  Granted, this is a modest increase, and
performance is still very good when compared to that over the last 20 years,
still that is a show of some weakness.”

Khater concludes, “Historically,
when the mortgage credit cycle begins to deteriorate it continues to do so
until the economy bottoms and the credit cycle begins to improve again. While
the deterioration in mortgage performance is very small and rising from very
low levels, it is important to track because turning points are critical but
difficult to identify in real time.”  

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04282017_corelogic_loan_performance.asp

Here’s Trump’s record on the middle class

Trump administration calls for dramatic tax cuts

As President Trump hits the 100-day milestone, one of the key questions is this: Is Trump delivering for the middle class?

Trump campaigned as the champion of the “little guy” (and gal). In his inaugural address he proclaimed that he would fight for the “forgotten men and women of our country” with “every breath in my body.”

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His supporters ate up this message. Middle class incomes are nearly the same as they were two decades ago. Over and over again, Trump voters told CNNMoney they want “better-paying jobs,” and they believed in their gut that a billionaire businessman was their best chance to get them.

At the 100-day mark, the White House is making it sound like prosperity is back. In contrast, Trump’s critics make it sound like he’s abandoned the little guy in favor of the Wall Street set.

A fair assessment is probably this: Trump has done a little for the middle class, but he could be doing a lot more.

“In the Heartland, they’re looking for very immediate, tangible improvements in their day-to-day well-being. I’m not seeing that yet,” says Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts.

Here’s a rundown:

1. His record on jobs. When it comes to jobs, Trump has added 317,000 in two full months so far. His pace of job gains is almost exactly the same as what happened last year under President Obama. It’s early days, but the economy has yet to be turbocharged like Trump promised.

Related: Trump says he created 600,000 jobs

2. His executive orders. Trump says he is saving the coal industry and enacting “Hire American” policies. He has signed several executive orders along those lines, but just about everyone — even coal executives — agree the coal jobs aren’t coming back. The U.S. has lost two-thirds of its coal jobs since the 1980s. Only 53,000 people still work in coal, far less than the 200,000+ workers in solar energy.

Another accomplishment Trump touts is approving the Keystone XL Pipeline. That will create some temporary construction work, but it only creates 35 permanent jobs, according to a government report.

3. His trade deals. Perhaps the biggest surprise in Trump’s first 100 days is how much he has toned down on trade. Yes, his administration has already slapped tariffs on Canadian lumber, but he isn’t ripping up NAFTA, the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico that he says “destroyed” America.

4. His tax plan. As promised, the White House tax plan includes cuts for middle and moderate income folks, but the rich and corporations get even more goodies.

“The majority of the benefits go to high-income people,” says Joe Rosenberg, a senior research associate at the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank.

Related: How Trump’s tax plan would help the wealthy (and Trump)

A typical middle class family would save about $1,000 on their taxes, according to a Tax Policy Center analysis of the tax plan Trump pitched on the campaign trail. In contrast, a family in the top 1% would save about $215,000 and family in the top 0.1% would save over $1 million.

The details were thin Wednesday, but the one-page sheet the White House released with bullet points showed a very similar tax plan outline to what Trump proposed while campaigning.

middle class income

“What he’s done directly for the middle class is very little,” says economist Stephen Rose of the Urban Institute.

The key benefit for people who make roughly $30,000 to $100,000 is that the standard deduction would double. (It’s currently $6,300 for individuals and $12,600 for married couples filing jointly.) That does reduce taxes, but here’s the catch: We still don’t know what other deductions Trump is going to eliminate. People who take deductions for moves or health expenses or student loans or business travel may have to kiss those goodbye.

Related: Trump has done a big flip-flop on Wall Street

How Trump can help the middle class

Trump understands that “real America” wants more money in their wallets. He talks (and tweets) about “jobs, jobs, jobs.” It helps explain why nearly 6 in 10 Americans say economic conditions are good, even though his overall approval rating is just 44%, according to the latest CNN/ORC poll.

The White House has its messaging on the economy down. It made a big effort Wednesday to emphasize how real people would benefit from the tax plan.

“This [tax] bill is about creating economic growth and jobs,” Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Wednesday. “What this is not going to be is a loophole to let rich people pay 15%.”

But there’s growing concern that the Trump administration is doing a repeat of trickle-down economics, which hasn’t worked in the past. It’s the theory that if the government cuts taxes on businesses, then corporations will prosper and hire more people and raise wages.

“Supply side economics has emerged from the grave once again, despite the fact that history and economic research have repeatedly discredited it,” says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group.

Mnuchin also argues that Trump’s tax plan won’t add to the $19 trillion debt. He says the economy will grow so much after tax cuts that it will fully offset any lost tax revenues.

That’s just “magical thinking,” says Rose. He points out that tax cuts didn’t pay for themselves or unleash a great economic renaissance under President George W. Bush or more recently in the state of Kansas.

Related: U.S. just lost a trade battle with Mexico

If Trump really wants to help the middle class, Rose says he should push for more money for education and infrastructure. The jobs of the future require at least some college, and improving roads and bridges could help the economy and provide very tangible improvement across America.

Atwater (and plenty of Trump voters) also advise Trump to raise the minimum wage. That would be an immediate boost for the working poor.

And there’s still time for Trump to scale back some of the tax breaks for the wealthy so his tax plan doesn’t add as much to the debt.

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Article source: http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_topstories/~3/yWodJdXpGss/index.html

3 things you didn’t know about Beyoncé’s most popular Met Gala looks

Beyoncé has come a long way since her debut at the Met Gala in 2008. The singer has increasingly taken more risks through the years, and it’s paying off. She made headlines — as she’s apt to do — for her 2015 and 2016 Givenchy gowns, which have become two of her most iconic looks to date.

We spoke to Ty Hunter, Beyoncé’s longtime stylist, about her most popular Met Gala gowns — 2012, 2015 and 2016, all by Givenchy. See what he had to say about them below, and hit the gallery for the singer’s full Met Gala evolution.

Beyoncé wasn’t planning to go in 2012.

Hunter says Beyoncé was rehearsing for The Mrs. Carter Show World Tour when she brought up the Met Gala taking place later that day.

“She was, like, ‘The Met is today.’ I was, like, ‘Yeah.’ And she was, like, ‘I think I want to go,'” Hunter recalls. The Givenchy team promptly came to the rehearsal hall for a fitting of the gown, which was originally slated for another project.

“Literally within a day or a couple of hours all of that happened — and it ended up being one of her most talked-about looks,” he says. “I was, like, ‘Oh my God, you want to go to what? The Met?'”

The black and purple Givenchy gown she wore is his favorite Met Gala look of hers due, in part, to the frenzy it took to bring it together. “If they didn’t have that dress, I would’ve gone crazy,” he says. “She had just had Blue [Ivy] and the world hadn’t seen her. To come back with a wow after being pregnant for so long and just showing that you can still be sexy and hot as a parent, [that’s] one of the reasons that dress got a lot of attention.”

Rewind to Beyonce at past Met Galas:

Up Next

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Her 2015 gown is “one of the heaviest gowns she’s ever worn.”

It may have looked as though Beyoncé was floating across the carpet in her 2015 Swarovski-embellished Givenchy gown, but it was actually one of the heaviest she’s ever worn.

“A lot of the rhinestones and gems, the rocky crystals, they were very heavy,” Hunter says. “It looked like the lightest ones because she looked naked under it, but it was one of the heaviest.” It has since become one of her most popular looks.

“You want everybody to say how great everything is, but we kind of have a system where as long as you feel happy and confident, it shows,” he says. “That’s why when Beyoncé’s on the carpets, she has so much confidence. She felt comfortable and loved the dress and showed it to the world.”

Her 2016 dress was “the easiest” overall.

Beyoncé’s 2016 Givenchy gown looks like it may have been the most difficult because of the latex fabric, but Hunter calls it “the easiest dress.”

“I didn’t really have to do too much,” he says. “Normally, we have to stay there and be there with her for the train and all that.”

The dress was one of two or three options total, which Hunter says is typical for events such as the Met Gala, but it was always the top choice. “[Tisci] put a spin on it and made it an elegant, form-fitting gown,” he says. “He’s always been before his time and wild, and I love it.”

Related: Trumps at the Met Gala

2016

(Photo by Taylor Hill/FilmMagic)

2015

(Photo by Rabbani and Solimene Photography/Getty Images)

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(Photo by Larry Busacca/Getty Images)

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(Photo by Rabbani and Solimene Photography/WireImage)

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(Photo by Larry Busacca/Getty Images)

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(Photo by Kevin Mazur/WireImage)

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(Photo by CHANCE YEH/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images)

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(Photo by BILLY FARRELL/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images)

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(Photo by Michael Loccisano/FilmMagic)

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(Photo by Evan Agostini/Getty Images)

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Article source: https://www.aol.com/article/lifestyle/2017/04/29/3-things-you-didn-t-know-about-beyonce-s-most-popular-met-gala-l/22061300/

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