With Election Day days away, and both candidates gearing up to deliver their final pitch to the American people, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will enter the last week of the election with a slight lead over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. However, October continues to leave its mark on the Clinton campaign.
According to Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, Clinton currently holds a razor thin 1.8 percentage advantage at 46.6 percent to Trump’s 44.8 percent—a lead well within the statistical margin of error.
Clinton’s lead, which for October peaked at 7.1 percentage points, has experienced a steady decline over recent weeks—perhaps in part do to FBI Director James Comey’s announcement that new emails related to Clinton’s private email server were under review. Comey said in a letter on Sunday to Congress that the review had not yielded any reason for charges, as was also the case in the initial investigation.
While Clinton remains the favorite on November 8, the billionaire businessman’s chances of winning the White House are at a month long high with a 35.5 percent chance of victory, according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast. Clinton hit over 80 percent at one point in October, but at the start of November has fallen to nearly 20 points to 64.5 percent.
The model predicts Clinton will clear the 270 electoral vote tally required to become president by about 20.
As national numbers continue to tighten, many experts project Tuesday night’s results could be historically close. Similarly, polling coming out ahead of the 2012 presidential election also pointed to a close end result. At this point in the race in 2012, President Obama led then Republican nominee Mitt Romney by only 0.7 percentage points nationally, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average. However, President Obama would go on to win his second term rather decisively.
Heading into the 2012 presidential election Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model, then licensed for publication by The New York Times, gave Romney only a 9 percent shot of winning the presidency—a considerably lower chance than Trump’s current 35 percent. Silver’s model ended up perfectly predicting the results in all 50 states of the 2012 election.
Clinton will hope some of Obama’s election mojo rubs off on Monday night when she holds what some are calling ‘The Avengers’ rally before the country heads to the polls on Tuesday. Trump has a late-night event planned in Michigan on Monday—a state that hasn’t gone red in a general election in nearly thirty years.
BY: WILLIAM STEAKIN