by Adam Solomon
Sterling / Euro and US Dollar exchange rates
The Pound remained on the front foot against the Euro yesterday, ahead of the EU Summit today and reports that Britain had rejected the treaty. The decline in risk appetite meant the Pound declined back towards near-term support in the region of 1.5550 versus the U.S Dollar, but the UK currency made widespread gains versus the higher-yielding currencies like the Australian Dollar and the South African Rand.
There was no surprise for the Bank of England yesterday, as interest rates were left unchanged at 0.5%, while the quantitative easing plan was also unchanged at £275 billion. As usual with a no policy change, there was no MPC statement and we’ll have to wait for the minutes of the meeting later this month to gauge the voting pattern.
The Pound edged higher following the decision and pushed to highs above 1.5750 against the Dollar before retreating sharply, as risk sentiment declined. The UK currency was undermined by the general flow of funds into the Dollar with lows near 1.56, as it held firm against the Euro. There will be speculation of political isolation surrounding the EU summit and, much more damagingly, there will be fears that the UK economy will be vulnerable to any possibility of a Euro-zone break-up.
Safe haven demand for Sterling will continue to be a key factor and there will be expectations of further defensive inflows, despite fears over the UK economic outlook. The principal feature is likely to be a sustained increase in volatility. The European Central Bank cut interest rates yesterday ahead of the EU summit, which could determine if any of the region’s members can keep a top credit rating with Standard Poor’s.
Although the Bank of England is reluctant to extend quantitative easing measures until the current round of purchases have been completed, King introduced a new sterling liquidity measure this week to help banks weather any further escalation of the sovereign debt crisis. The Pound and the Euro fell against the Dollar, after the ECB President Mario Draghi dampened speculation that the Central Bank would buy more bonds to fight the debt crisis.
Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale said on November 25th that there’s a strong case for further QE in the future and Paul Fisher also conceded that more stimulus may be needed. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said yesterday that UK economic growth slowed to 0.3% in the three months through November, increasing fears of a recession.
Euro / US Dollar exchange rates
The Euro was under pressure yesterday, as the ECB cut interest rates to 1% and the decision was not unanimous, which suggests divisions are forming within the governing council. There was also a reduction in GDP forecasts and there was a general sense of pessimism surrounding the outlook for the economy over the next quarter.
The central bank also announced that it would introduce new three-year repo operations to provide long-term liquidity to the banking sector. The Euro declined sharply following Draghi’s comments in the ECB press conference yesterday, as Italian bond yields spiked higher. In the U.S, the economic data was better-than-expected with a drop in weekly jobless claims to 381,000 in the latest week from 402,000 and this provided a brief boost to risk appetite, albeit shortly.
There were further political tensions in the build up to the EU summit meeting this evening. A draft agreement indicated that any treaty changes would be limited to the 17-nation Euro-zone rather than the 27 EU member countries. Underlying confidence remained fragile on fears that the Summit agreement would not be sufficient to provide relief and the Euro retreated sharply to re-test lows below 1.33.
Today’s Exchange Rate Data
EU – EU Summit
U.K 09:30 – Producer Price Index (November) – Output
U.K 09:30 – Trade Balance (October)
U.S 13:30 – Trade Balance (October)
U.S 14:55 – Prelim Michigan Sentiment (December)
- Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Forecast – The Euro remained under pressure against the Dollar
- The Pound remained on the defensive yesterday and slumped to near six week lows against the US Dollar exchange rate
- The Pound remained broadly unchanged against the Euro Exchange Rate
- Pound Sterling, the Euro and US Dollar exchange rate news – The Pound remained in a tight trading range against both the Euro and the U.S Dollar
- Pound Sterling to US Dollar Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Forecast – The US dollar exchange rate spent October on the back foot