Investors rethink crowded Trump trade


The Wall Street Journal’s Markets section today discussed a shift from investments in stocks over to bonds.

According to Aaron Kuriloff and Min Zeng, “Government bonds strengthened again Thursday, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note down to 2.477% from its postelection peak of 2.6% hit Dec. 16, while 10-year German yields fell to 0.174%, according to Tradeweb, the lowest level since the U.S. vote,” they wrote. “The SP 500 fell less than 0.1% to 2249.26, its lowest close in three weeks.”

The authors say investors are “recalibrating their conviction” in the Trump trade, a term used to describe market volatility in the wake of the presidential election outcome.

Their expert explains:

Gene Tannuzzo, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, said he has cut holdings of junk bonds—debt sold by companies with lower-rated debt—in recent weeks and scooped up Treasury bonds, reflecting concerns that economic-growth expectations had become too optimistic.

Mr. Tannuzzo said details and implementation of Mr. Trump’s expansive fiscal policy plans may fail to live up to investors’ expectations in 2017. He also is concerned that higher Treasury yields are pushing up mortgage rates and other borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which could be a drag on the U.S. growth outlook.

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