How Did The Jobs Report Affect Mortgage Rates?

Interest Rates

improved slightly yesterday as we awaited this morning’s high risk
event, the monthly Employment Situation Report.

That report showed that no new jobs were created last month, a worse than
anticipated result.  But as you may be aware,
bad economic data usually coincides with lower interest rates.  It’s not always a direct connection, but

That’s also the case today as mortgage rates have improved over
yesterday’s offerings. 

CURRENT MARKET*: The BestExecution 30-year fixed mortgage rate
has moved down to 4.125%. Several lenders are willing to offer lower
, but those quotes carry with them additional closing costs.  On
FHA/VA 30 year fixed BestExecution has improved back to 4.000%. 
Deals can be structured with lower rates, but again, you’ll pay more for those,
so make sure you assess the time it takes to break-even on the extra
expense.  15 year fixed conventional loans are best priced at 3.625%. Five
year ARMs are still best priced at 3.250%. ARMs seem to have bottomed

A note on the greater-than-normal variation in rate offerings between
lenders.  There is an increased amount of variety in what individual
lenders are now quoting as their BestExecution rates.  This is a
factor of price volatility in the secondary mortgage
 Unfortunately when volatility picks up in the secondary
mortgage market, the cost of doing business gets more expensive for lenders
(hedging costs go up). Those added costs are usually passed down to consumers
via extra margin in rate sheets.  Additionally, the recent rates rally
makes lenders busy enough that some control their inbound volume by raising
rates regardless of the secondary mortgage market in order to discourage new

GUIDANCE: If you were floating into today, you’re either already
seeing gains or will be by the end of the day. 
That means we’re back within an eighth or two of the best rates of all
time, increasing our bias toward locking. 
However, the passing of the Jobs report does remove some volatility and
uncertainty from the market which could benefit rates in the short term.  Considering the holiday weekend though, and our
nearness to all time lows, it’s more frustrating to miss out on a refi
opportunity in the low 4’s altogether than to miss out on an opportunity in the
high 3’s but still lock in the low 4’s, and thus lean toward locking ahead of
the 3 day weekend.

Refi Roadmap: A Locked Rate Isn’t a Closed Loan
must read


*Best Execution is the most cost efficient combination of note
rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on
the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the
monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by
0.125%. When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must
have an idea of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask
you originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis”
on your permanent rate buy down costs.

*Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: The Best Execution loan pricing
quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of the
primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these
rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a
middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a refinance
or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing costs. If the
terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing adjustments
(LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the
“perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan originator
for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more
expensive.”No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The
best 30year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing
costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t
forget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process

CAUTION: MND guidance is speculative in nature. We don’t have a
crystal ball, we can’t predict the future, we can only share our outlook.
Making the following considerations extra important……………………

What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates rally?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough

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