Mortgage Rates Face High Risk Event Tomorrow

Interest Rates

Mortgage Rates
continued higher today, removing 3.875% from Best-Execution status as most
lenders and introducing the possibility of seeing 4.125%. 

That said, the buy-downs to 3.875%
are still fairly cheap, so the rate is available if it you pay the extra
buy-down costs (assuming that makes sense for your scenario)

Tomorrow brings the high risk event
of the week in the form of the Employment Situation Report.  As we said yesterday, markets seem poised to
move in either direction after that report, and those movements are likely to
affect mortgage rates.

Today’s Rates: 

  • BESTEXECUTION 30YR FIXED –   4.0% on average.  
  • FHA/VA
    still at 3.75% !!
    –  3.375%-3.5% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  low
    to mid 3% range, variations from lender to lender.

Ongoing Guidance: Lean more heavily toward locking when Best-Ex is near 
4.0 these days.  Optimistic for future gains, but would hate to see 3.875
unexpectedly evaporate on some surprise headline out of Europe or turning point
in economic data.

New Guidance: It’s possible, but unlikely that today will be the last time
you’ll see a 4% rate available on a 30yr fixed mortgage.  That said, if tomorrow’s jobs data is strong,
rates could move higher and might not move back lower until your refinancing
timeline has expired.  So weigh the risks
of an unfriendly market movement versus your estimated timeline.  If you’re in a purchase scenario or are
certainly going to refinance, the reward for a well-timed float likely isn’t
worth the risk here.  But if you’re keen
to float, have time to wait for rates to come back down, and are willing to
lock at a loss if they don’t, we’re not opposed to a cautious float into

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