Mortgage Rates: How Did Jobs Data Impact Borrowing Costs?

After spending the first four months of 2011 in a tight range, the primary mortgage market is now in
the midst of a potentially significant shift lower in home loan borrowing
costs.

Today’s jobs report initially caused bond markets to weaken and loan pricing to worsen, but that didn’t last long. Headline news helped fuel a reversal early in the afternoon hours which allowed many lenders to reprice rate sheets for the better, leaving borrowing costs very close to yesterday’s levels (which happen to be the best quotes since early December). This can be seen in the chart below which compares origination costs as a percentage of your loan amount for several available mortgage note rates.  If the line is moving up, costs are getting
higher for that particular rate, and vice-versa

As you can see below, consumer borrowing costs have been on a winning streak…

Each line represents a different 30 year fixed mortgage note rate.  The numbers on the right vertical axis are the origination closing costs, as a percentage of your loan amount, that a borrower would be required to pay in order to close on that note rate. If the note rate graph line is below the 0.00% marker, the consumer may potentially receive closing cost help from their lender in the form of a lender credits. If the note rate line is above the 0.00% marker, the consumer should expect to pay additional points at the closing table to cover permanent buydown costs and origination fees. PLEASE SEE OUR MORTGAGE RATE DISCLAIMER BELOW

CURRENT MARKET: The “Best
Execution” conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen from 4.875% to
4.75% today.  If you are looking to move down from there, you’ll be
assessing the trade-offs between higher closing costs and lower monthly
payments.  This could be worth it to applicants who plan on keeping their
new mortgage outstanding for long enough to break even on the extra
costs.  More lenders, especially brokers, are pricing conventional loans
aggressively because competition is so tight in the primary mortgage market. 
On FHA/VA 30 year fixed “Best Execution” has fallen from 4.75% to
4.50%
.  15 year fixed conventional loans are best priced at 4.000%.
Five year ARMs are best priced at 3.375% but the ARM market is more stratified
and there is more variation in what will be “Best-Execution”
depending on your individual scenario. 

PREVIOUS GUIDANCE:  Today’s trading in the secondary mortgage
market constitutes another step toward a shift lower in mortgage rates.
Tomorrow may progress that process, give it pause, or totally reverse it. It
remains true that if bond investors reverse their sentiments that the rate
spike that follows could be violent and that this could happen as soon as
tomorrow after the Employment Situation Report, even if rates move lower in the
longer term.  If you’re being offered a below “current market”
quote, be extra defensive. Your main mission should be keeping it!  If you
are interested in learning more about the technical factors associated with a
potential interest rates rally, we recommend reading this post as it provides pertinent perspectives and
explains the situation in Plain and Simple terms.  As always, if you want
to benefit from another leg lower in Best Execution mortgage rates, you must
read the rules…..

CURRENT GUIDANCE: Yet
another step forward was taken today in the shift toward lower mortgage rates.  Bond markets are demonstrating enough
resilience that those inclined to float for longer term potential gains are
still allowed to do so. Short termers must deal with the constant risks associated with a pull-back from
recent rate improvements.  With the recent drop in Best-Execution rates,
lender offerings are the most aggressiv they’ve ben since early December.  If
you’re being offered a below “current market” quote, your main
mission should be keeping it!  If you are interested in learning more
about the technical factors associated with a potential interest rates rally,
we recommend reading this post as it provides pertinent perspectives and
explains the situation in Plain and Simple terms.  As always, if you want
to benefit from another leg lower in Best Execution mortgage rates, you must
read the rules…..

 What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates
rally?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you
want/need.
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you
want/need.
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough
decisions?

Jobs Data Preview: Bonds Seeking Confirmation

—————————-

*”Best Execution” is the most efficient combination of note
rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on
the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the
monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%. 
When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must have an idea
of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask you
originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis” on
your permanent rate buy down costs.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer
: The “Best Execution” loan
pricing quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of
the primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these
rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a
middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a
refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing
costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing
adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into
the “perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan
originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more
expensive. “No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The
best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing
costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t
forget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process.

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/210470.aspx

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