Mortgage Rates: Losing Streak in Progress

Interest Rates

Consumer borrowing costs rose marginally today, marking the third consecutive session where mortgage rates have ticked slightly higher.  Although we’re not yet looking at an unfriendly development in BestExecution rate quotes, the pressure is definitely on. We’re teetering on a shift higher…

CURRENT MARKET*: The Best Execution 30-year fixed mortgage
rate is just barely 4.125%.  Several lenders are still willing to offer
4.000%, but those quotes carry with them additional closing costs. 4.250% is still widely-available. On FHA/VA 30 year fixed Best Execution
is 4.000%. 3.875% and even 3.750% are available with additional closing costs. 
15 year fixed conventional loans are best priced at 3.625%. Five year ARMs are still best priced at
3.25. ARMs seem to have bottomed out. 

Although many lenders have greatly improved their consumer rate quotes
over the past two weeks, there is an increased amount of variety in
what individual lenders are now quoting as their BestExecution
rates.  This is a factor of price volatility in the secondary mortgage
 Unfortunately when volatility picks up in the secondary
mortgage market, the cost of doing business gets more expensive for lenders
(hedging costs go up). Those added costs are usually passed down to consumers
via extra margin in rate sheets. These costs are unavoidable. The best thing
for mortgage rates right now is stability. Additionally, some lenders have been
adjusting their loan pricing strategies to better control the flow of new loan
originations.  To put it more simply, some lenders are busier than others
and can’t take-in anymore business, so they’ve pushed rates higher to encourage
consumers to either wait it out or find another lender before rates rise.

GUIDANCE: If you missed the boat on record low mortgage rates last
November/October, the opportunity is still out there for the taking. And we
think you should jump on it as soon as possible.
The risks involved in floating
have greatly expanded to include (1) lenders taking it upon themselves to
negatively adjust rate sheets (to slow loan production) and (2) interest rates
finding a bottom and moving higher on their own.   The frustration of missing
out on “high 3’s” and instead getting “low 4’s” seems
nowhere near as bad as the frustration of missing out on a refi opportunity
(moving from 5% to 4.25% for instance) altogether.

Roadmap: A Locked Rate Isn’t a Closed Loan
— must read


*Best Execution is the most cost efficient combination of note
rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on
the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the
monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by
0.125%. When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must
have an idea of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask
you originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis”
on your permanent rate buy down costs.

*Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: The Best Execution loan pricing
quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of the
primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these
rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a
middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a
refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing
costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing
adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into
the “perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan
originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more
expensive.”No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The
best 30year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing
costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t
forget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process

CAUTION: MND guidance is speculative in nature. We don’t have a
crystal ball, we can’t predict the future, we can only share our outlook.
Making the following considerations extra important……………………

What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates rally?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you want/need.
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough

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