Today is one of those days where the importance of NOT paying attention to
the Treasury market for mortgage rate indications is strikingly clear. Although there are a few instances of
lower-than-2% benchmark 10yr Treasury rates in the ancient past, the fact that 10yr notes dipped
into the 1’s today is an unprecedented event in modern economic history.
You might think that would result in an improvement in mortgage rates, but
no such luck. When things are this
volatile and move this quickly, the secondary mortgage market simply can’t keep
pace with the Treasury yields you’ll now doubt hear your local news talk about
tonight. In fact, those rapid movements
ultimately served to weaken current mortgage rate offerings somewhat,
thankfully, not enough to change the BestExecution mortgage rates, but
depending on the lender, borrowing costs are higher today. This volatile, counterintuitive
behavior is why our ongoing guidance is unchanged.
(additional info about current volatility that we’ve been including in every
post): Though many lenders have greatly improved their consumer rate quotes
over the past two weeks, we must point out an increased amount of variety in
what individual lenders are now quoting as their Best Execution
rates. This is a factor of price volatility in the secondary mortgage
market. Unfortunately when volatility picks up in the secondary
mortgage market, the cost of doing business gets more expensive for lenders
(hedging costs go up). Those added costs are usually passed down to consumers
via extra margin in rate sheets. These costs are unavoidable. The best thing
for mortgage rates right now is stability. Additionally, some lenders have been
adjusting their loan pricing strategies to better control the flow of new loan
originations. To put it more simply, some lenders are busier than others
and can’t take-in anymore business, so they’ve pushed rates higher to encourage
consumers to either wait it out or find another lender before rates rise.
CURRENT MARKET*: The Best Execution 30-year fixed mortgage
rate has fallen to 4.125%. Several lenders are willing to offer
4.000% and even 3.875% is possible for those interested in buying down their
rate. 4.250% is widely-available. On FHA/VA 30 year fixed Best Execution
is 4.000%, but 3.875 and even 3.750 are available with additional closing costs.
15 year fixed conventional loans are best priced at 3.625% but we’re seeing
aggressive quotes as low as 3.375%. Five year ARMs are still best priced at
3.25. ARMs seem to have bottomed out.
CHART OF RECORD LOW BORROWING COSTS
GUIDANCE: If you missed the boat on record low mortgage rates last
November/October, the opportunity is still out there for the taking. And we
think you should jump on it as soon as possible. The risks involved in floating
have greatly expanded to include (1) lenders taking it upon themselves to
negatively adjust rate sheets (to slow loan production) and (2) interest rates
finding a bottom and moving higher on their own. The frustration of missing
out on “high 3’s” and instead getting “low 4’s” seems
nowhere near as bad as the frustration of missing out on a refi opportunity
(moving from 5% to 4.25% for instance) altogether.
MUST READ GUIDANCE: Refi
Roadmap: A Locked Rate Isn’t a Closed Loan
*Best Execution is the most cost efficient combination of note
rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on
the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the
monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by
0.125%. When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must
have an idea of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask
you originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis”
on your permanent rate buy down costs.
*Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: The Best Execution loan pricing
quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of the
primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these
rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a
middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a
refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing
costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing
adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into
the “perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan
originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more
expensive.”No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The
best 30year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing
costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t
forget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process
CAUTION: MND guidance is speculative in nature. We don’t have a
crystal ball, we can’t predict the future, we can only share our outlook.
Making the following considerations extra important……………………
What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates rally?
1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you want/need.
2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you
3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough