Most commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquencies peaked at 10.34% in the middle of 2012 and fallen since then, but the 2007 vintage’s remain high with an average delinquency rate of 14.6% over the past 12 months, according to Trepp.
“Despite a steady dose of modifications (which lead to loan cures) and resolutions of distressed assets, both of which should push the rate lower, the delinquency rate on 2007 fixed rate conduit loans remains well into the double digits,” Trepp said in a report.
“This will be an interesting statistic to watch over the next few months,” the company said in the report. “Since we are now in a period with very few 2007 loans reaching maturity, any new defaults will not be balloon defaults. If the rate continues to stay flat or creep lower, it will mean that any loan resolutions are being replaced by new term defaults. This would be a troubling turn, especially given the recent strong winds behind the commercial real estate markets.”