2011 Bank Failures on Track to Reach 100


Commercial real estate loans were the principal cause of the
five bank failures reported in November according to Trepp’s November 2011 U.S.
Bank Failure Report.  These loans comprised
80.8 percent of the $160 million in non-performing loans that caused the bank
failures in Georgia, Louisiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Utah.  The majority of the commercial real estate
loans (64.4 percent of the total) were land and construction loans, the
remaining 16.5 percent were commercial mortgages.

Delinquent residential real estate loans were the secondary
cause of distress, representing 10.1 percent of the portfolios at the failed
banks; of the remainder 5.4 percent were commercial and industrial loans and
other loans comprised 3.7 percent.

In what Trepp called a pattern, the five failures in
November followed eleven in October.  This
year there has been a spike in failures in the month immediately following the
end of a quarter and then a drop in the two subsequent months.  Thus far in 2011 90 banks have been closed by
regulators, an average of 7.5 per month, a pace indicating a total of 100 for
the year
.  Trepp said it expects the bank
closures to extend into 2012 and possibly beyond although this will largely
depend on the economy in general and real estate in particular. 

The estimated costs to resolve the failed banks (loss
severity) fell to 17.5 percent of failed bank assets, down from 22 percent in
October.  Loss-sharing was featured in
only one of the five failures during the month.

Trepp noted that the banks that failed in November had been
on its watchlist for a considerable amount of time – a median of 12 months –
and all had featured the highest Fail Risk Scores issued by Trepp, a ten.  After the November failures there are 227
banks with high Failure Risk Scores remaining on the Trepp Watchlist although
smaller banks now predominate. 

Trepp predicts that there will be a high number of failures
in Georgia, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee in
upcoming months.

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