Did Today’s Stock Rally Affect Bond Market Trends?


The answer to the question posed in the headline will turn out to be “not in the slightest.”  But if you happen to have time for more than once sentence, I put together a few charts to back up that claim.  Before we look at the MBS and Treasury charts, what’s all this about a stock rally?  In case you missed it, stocks came roaring back in the last hour of trading.  The SP gained over 40 points… Absolutely huge reversal…  Looks like this:

Now take a look at YESTERDAY’S SP CHART which showed the breakout of a long-standing trendline.  Was today’s rally enough to “reject” that breakout?  In other words, a breakout of a technical level consists of a “test” and a “confirmation.”  If no confirmation, the test is rejected and there is technically no breakout, just a close call.  The jury may still be out on this one, but stocks didn’t rise past the trendline they broke yesterday, as you can see in the chart below.  Still…  it’s close enough that it’s impossible to say if stocks are doomed to plummet tomorrow. It could go either way.

Thankfully, the stock rally didn’t phase bond markets too terribly much.  10yr yields put in a 3pm official closing mark that was essentially the same as yesterday’s 3pm close (red line in the chart below) and only briefly traded above yesterday’s pivot point marked by the teal line.

The bigger picture is tamer still.  Here’s an ongoing look at the longer-term trend channel in 10yr yields.  Although you might see the hints of a triangle forming into NFP Friday, the trend not only remains intact for now, but well below the mid-point.  In fact, this chart makes bond markets look downright bullish, no?

Finally we come to MBS…  Fannie 3.5’s have a trend channel of their own in the works since early August.  Unlike Treasuries, MBS are slightly weaker than the midpoint of their trend, but as you can see, we’d need to be almost a full point lower in order to be threatening a bearish breakout.  At least until something more drastic happens (if it happens), we’re just continuing to witness ebbs and flows in a volatile market during uncertain times.  Expect the choppiness that’s been seen within these ranges.  It’ll probably be around for a while.

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