How Much Recent Negativity Was Reversed Today?


One of the possibilities we’ve been following, moreso around the 19th and 20th than recently, has been the possibility (or overly-optimistic hope?) that 10yr yields were in some sort of bullish correction after hitting 2.25-ish.  We’d noted recently, how that trend was broken and how yields even returned to the scene of the crime to bounce off the upper line as resistance.  Earlier today, the big rally brought yields exactly to that trendline again (pictured in the white circle below) and while respect was certainly paid to the technical level, yields in fact reentered the trend channel.

So the question is, does that mean anything? 

And the answer is “probably not.”  Or the answer is also:


which makes MBS version of the answer similar:

And of course who could forget that stocks still look to have broken out of their sideways slide (but in the bigger picture, had a pretty big fail at a prerty major inflection point around 1255.

The bottom line is that today was a much-welcomed correction within a sideways range for bonds, and a sobering reminder that tomorrow’s EU Summit can go either way.  Great rally, but no fundamental shift.  (but we’ll certainly take the confirmation of being “sideways” as opposed to selling-off).



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