Is Fifth Time The Charm For MBS Concrete Ceiling?


Earlier this month, we asked what it might take to break the “concrete ceiling” in MBS.  Then again we revisitied longer term MBS charts at the end of the last week to find the same ceiling remained intact.  And now again today, MBS have fizzled out before cracking into the undiscovered country that lies above 104-19 in 4.0’s and 101-25 in Fannie Mae 3.5 coupon 30yr fixed MBS.  

So with reprices for the better soon to arrive or having already done so, high risk events on the horizon in the upcoming days, not to mention a decent amount of this morning’s rally owing to fickle European headlines, it seems that holding out for incremental improvements is a risky proposition until MBS pull out the jack hammer.  This is one of those “play the range until the range plays you” pieces of advice.  Sure, further gains are possible, but this is as good as they’ve gotten recently.

That said, keep in mind that we’re talking about playing the range in MBS Prices, which, as you know are not always the same as what’s available on rate sheets.  We could well tighten up a bit on Primary/Secondary spreads, but perhaps not enough to suggest that tonight is anything but one of the better locking opportunities in recent memory.


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