though mortgages rates have declined over the last several months, consumers
remain bearish about buying a home.
Fannie Mae said net positive responses to the question about whether it
is a good time to buy more than reversed a 7-point increase in March, falling 8
points to 14 percent in April. That is
15 percentage points lower than the April 2018 level. That reversal was, in
part, responsible for a 1.5-point decline in the Home Purchase Sentiment Index
(HPSI) to a reading of 88.3. The HPSI is
down 3.4 points compared with the same time last year.
“good time to buy” question is among those asked of consumers in Fannie Mae’s
monthly National Housing Survey (NHS) and is one of six questions that are used
to calculate the HPSI.
Consumers are very much aware of the recent good news
about interest rates. Fannie Mae says
the net positive share of survey respondents who expect rates to decline over
the following 12 months has risen a total of 12 points over March and April. Five points of that gain came last month. The net share is now -40 percent, 8 points
higher than in April 2018.
The net share of those who say it is
a good time to sell a home was unchanged at 43 percent in April. This component
is down 2 percentage points from the same time last year.
Survey respondents are acknowledging
the recent slowing of home price gains. The
net share of those who say home prices will go up over the next 12 months
decreased 2 percentage points to 36 percent and is down 13 percentage points
from the same time last year.
remain upbeat about economic activity but have more mixed attitudes toward the
housing market,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at
Fannie Mae. “While home selling confidence remains strong and more consumers on
net expect mortgage rates to decline over the next year, respondents walked
back some of their buying optimism from March. Improving perceptions of income
gains and a softening home price growth outlook should help support housing
demand. However, increasing expectations among consumers that mortgage rates
will continue to be favorable for some time will likely gain additional support
following last week’s Fed meeting – and may also be reducing their urgency to
were more bullish about personal finances. Those who say their income is
significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 2 percentage points on
net to 22 percent, 4 points higher than a year earlier. The net share of Americans who say they are
not concerned about losing their job dropped by 6 percentage points to 74
percent. This component is down 2 percentage points from the same time last
The NHS, from which the HPSI is constructed, is conducted
monthly by telephone among 1,000 consumers, both homeowners and renters. In addition to the six questions that form
the framework of the index, respondents are asked questions about the economy,
personal finances, attitudes about getting a mortgage, and questions to track
attitudinal shifts. The April 2019
National Housing Survey was conducted between April 1 and April 23, 2019.