MBS Day Ahead: Aggressively Friendly Range Breakout


In the day just past, bonds traded an “outside day” (high and low yields of the day fell OUTSIDE the highs and lows from the previous day).  This signals both indecision and volatility.  In other words, bonds weren’t sure which way to go, but they knew they were going big.  Matters were made more interesting by the fact that there were no standout market movers from a headline standpoint.

Bonds face no such issues in the day ahead as Trump made sure to deliver an obvious market mover overnight.  The President tweeted about new tariffs on Mexico.  Yields and stocks surged lower right out of the gate in the overnight session.  This shatters the current trend channel, which had already come under attack in recent days.

2019-5-31 open

The primary goal for traders will be to assess bounce potential as bonds continue pushing into overbought levels.  Economic data presents asymmetric risks in this environment, and they’re in our favor.  Specifically, bonds will be more willing to ignore a good report here and there, but will be eager to improve further if a report suggests economic contraction.  

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