MBS Day Ahead: And Now We’re Trendless

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In the day just passed, bonds rallied somewhat sharply as headlines suggested Theresa May was soon to be ousted as Britain’s prime minister.  Is it possible that other headlines regarding American politics were having an effect?  Maybe to a very small extent, but the lion’s share of the movement was a British/European affair.

In the day ahead, the only significant economic data is New Home Sales, seen coming in at 675k vs 692k previously at 10am ET.  Even then, this is far from a reliable market mover.  Traders will be far more interested in assessing whether or not the recent, ‘unexpected’ rally is an ephemeral, pre-holiday diversion, or something of substance.

I ranted for a moment on the notion of a market movement being “unexpected” yesterday because clearly, it just wouldn’t work if markets were more than 50% predictable.  There’s a winner and a loser on every trade that speculates on the future direction of a single security.  Perhaps a better word than ‘unexpected’ would be ‘counter-trend.’  

All that to say we had a well-established trend for most of May.  It led toward lower rates.  Then we had a counter-trend move that pushed back toward higher rates starting last week.  The past 2 days (including this morning’s overnight session) are now acting like a “counter-counter-trend” move.

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