MBS Day Ahead: Another Day of Limited Data and the ‘Summertime Tuesday’ Phenomenon


As we recently discussed, summertime Mondays might as well be part of a 3-day weekend.  Volume and participation on Mondays in July and August especially, are almost always the lowest since the previous Monday.  This was certainly true for yesterday’s session and simply suggests that the week does more to actually ‘begin’ today.

Much like yesterday though, today will have to find its inspiration without any significant economic data or scheduled market events.  While there is some data in the morning, none of it moves markets.  The afternoon’s 3yr Treasury auction has an outside chance of garnering a response, but nothing on the order of tomorrow’s 10yr auction.

Also much like yesterday, we’re in the process of assessing whether or not bond markets are bouncing at recent low yields.  With Monday basically being flat, we still don’t really have a verdict on that.  All we can really observe would be a simple yes or no as to whether or not Treasuries remain in this trend.  Gaining or losing enough ground to break outside would take a move so big that we’re not likely to see it without a truly momentous headline development.

2014-8-11 tsy trend

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