MBS Day Ahead: Busiest Day of Economic Data, but Dark Horses in Europe


Today is the busiest day of the week for domestic economic data and Treasury Auctions.  The 8:30 time slot brings Jobless Claims and the 2nd revision of 2nd quarter GDP.  At 10am, there’s Pending Home Sales and the week’s last Treasury auction hits at 1pm.

Given that the first reading of Q2 GDP is the one that flipped the script from -2.9 to +4.0, this revision is potentially very important in building a sense of “what’s really going on with GDP.”  But even with all that recent relevance, there are scheduled events outside our domestic calendar that could be just as meaningful.  In fact, they could do even more to set the tone between now and next Thursday.

We’re talking about the inflation readings in the Eurozone–largely because inflation is seen as the lynchpin for accelerating the ECB’s potential quantitative easing package.  And it’s those prospects for EU QE that are very likely at the heart of the current bond market strength–certainly much more so than geopolitical risk.

In fact, there’s a relatively epic amount of economic data in Europe throughout the night.  The last of the important inflation reports doesn’t hit until 1 hour before the first salvo of US data.  Bottom line, if we’re seeing markets do something other than what we think they should be doing at 8:30, it will probably be because the balance of European data suggested it.

And just for an obligatory chart of the day, let’s check back in with the European “wet blanket”  via this chart of EU 10yr benchmark yields (which means “German Bunds”) vs US benchmark 10’s (10yr Treasuries).  You can literally hear, see, and feel European markets leading US rates lower than they want to be.

2014-8-27 bund tsy

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