MBS Day Ahead: Busiest Day of Economic Data This Week


Today’s calendar of scheduled events is the busiest of the week with Jobless Claims at 8:30am followed by Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales at 10am.  All the reports are important as Jobless Claims covers the week that coincides with the data collection for Nonfarm Payrolls.  This doesn’t guarantee a big reaction, but increases the chances that it will be slightly bigger than normal.  Philly Fed is always a potential market mover and Existing Home Sales is one of the more widely followed housing metrics.  In the current case, some traders may be looking for confirmation of recent better-than-expected housing data.

2014-8-20 ehs

Bond markets continue to reserve the right to completely ignore the economic data and continue following technical paths.  These paths are both the longer term downtrends in rates going  all the way back to February and the short term path acting as a correction after last Friday’s big rally (discussed HERE).  The frustrating thing about moving higher in rate at the moment is that this correction could take rates quite a bit higher and STILL not break the longer term downtrend. 

2014-8-20 TSY

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