MBS Day Ahead: Calm Before The Storm


After the big moves seen yesterday, and in the absence of any top tier economic data, today’s session is more likely to see smaller moves as markets gear up for 3 big days that culminate in Friday’s Payrolls numbers.  Apart from simply making big moves, trading levels in Treasuries  are at or near what some technicians consider the maximum resistance target for the current rally.  In other words, when rates began moving  lower in rate in 2014, one of the more popular guesses as to how far the rally would go was “2.5’s in 10yr yields.” 

There’s nothing too magical about that analysis considering that most of the second half of 2013 saw 10yr yields compartmentalized in tidy quarter point ranges from 2.5 to 2.75 and then from 2.75 to 3.0, roughly.  The approach of the 200-day moving average is also always sure to get some air-time from pundits, but should you read much into that?  Take a look at how yields move around the green line in the past and decide for yourself (note: there’s no wrong answer here.  Some people will see technical significance while others will wonder what the fuss is about).

10yr Treasury with 200Day Moving Average

There is no significant economic data on tap, though 3rd tier reports are out at 945am with ISM New York Manufacturing data and Factory Orders at 10am.  Apart from that, there are Fed speakers (Lacker at 830am and Evans at 1230pm), but unless they express contingent views concerning the impending employment data, markets will likely remain more interested in the data itself.

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