MBS Day Ahead: First and Only Major Econ Data of The Week

News

Bond markets are beginning the day slightly stronger ahead of the week’s only significant economic data.  The 8:30am time slot brings Retail Sales (expected at +0.7) and Producer Prices (core year-over-year expected to drop from 1.6 to 1.5).  10am brings the arguably less important Consumer Sentiment, expected at 98.5.  

Yesterday’s recap provided a fairly thorough assessment of a few competing ideologies regarding the current tone in bond markets.  In a nutshell, it said that some analysts were freaked out about yesterday.  Others thought it was strong.  I was personally a bit indifferent, seeing the afternoon weakness as a logical pull-back after traders bet fairly heavily on another exceptionally strong Treasury auction.

Translating the analysis to bond yields, it adds up to ongoing resistance at 2.34% in 10yr yields.  With today beginning RIGHT THERE (seriously, 2.3398% a few minutes before data), the onus appears to be on the economic data to move the needle.  After all, the forward path of rates will be dependent on actual growth/inflation being generated, whether by fiscal policies or the forces already in play before the fiscal policies have had a chance to become policy.

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