MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Tame Data Before Things Get Serious


Yesterday proved to be anything but serious based on the narrow trading range.  10yr yields only used up half of the range they’d carved out on Friday and MBS, even less than that.  With none of the week’s big-ticket market movers hitting until tomorrow, it feels like bond markets are biding their time until then. 

At times like this, it’s not uncommon for both stocks and bonds to travel together, generally hitting intraday highs and lows together.  This was the case yesterday.  It doesn’t necessarily mean anything interesting about the future, but it builds a case for that “biding time” concept.  It can also be more prevalent around the end of the month as some investors begin adjusting portfolio balances based on updated indexes.

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If calendar events stand a chance to cause pronounced movement today, they lie with Consumer Confidence at 10am.  This tends to be a more potent market mover than yesterday’s Pending Home Sales data, but again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the bigger moves stay on hold until tomorrow.

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Apart from that, the only other economic data is Case Shiller Home Prices at 9am–not usually a market mover.  In terms of non-data events, today’s Treasury auction (5yr Notes at 1pm) stands more of a chance to cause some small movement than yesterday’s 2yr Auction (which had essentially no chance).

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