MBS Day Ahead: Longer Term Trend at Risk


When we talk about the ‘longer term trend’ these days, we’re referencing the slow and steady improvements for bond markets that began in early 2014.  The chart below shows this trend using 10yr Treasury yields.  It also shows that yields have moved from the strongest part of the trend to the weakest in just under 2 weeks.

2014-9-10 tsy trend

This is either a warning sign about even bigger losses ahead, or it’s exactly what we need to catch our breath and keep the trend going.  As we discussed last week, even strong trends need their moments of weakness. 

In the current case, there’s so much speculation about how next week’s FOMC Announcement will shake out that we won’t be able to confirm or reject any trends until then.  In the meantime, however, we’re likely to see a day or two of correction some time in the near future.  More simply put, bonds have sold-off enough to take a bit of a break from selling-off, assuming that’s what they’d continue to do.

Today’s economic data won’t be too helpful for better or worse.  Jobless Claims is all we have and it just hasn’t been moving markets recently.  In fact, hardly any economic data has had a major impact, and in the cases where it has, we must ask ourselves if that’s merely because it fell in line with the prevailing momentum in bond markets.  After all, even NFP reports have been trumped by the momentum on several occasions this year.

1pm brings the last of the week’s Treasury auctions.  While today’s 30yr is not as big a deal as yesterday’s 10yr in and of itself, it could act as a better jumping-off-point for the bounce we’re hoping to see.  Reason being: it marks the end of this week’s need for primary dealers to big on billions of dollars of debt.  In short, dealers have extra heavy lifting to do on auction weeks, and by Thursday afternoon, that burden is lifted.

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