MBS Day Ahead: NFP and ISM Round Out Big Week of Data


In the day just past, bonds sold off due to what appears to be market dissatisfaction with a hawkish message from the Fed.  This largely came courtesy of Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, but cues may also have been gleaned by the fact that one of the potential Fed nominees (that Trump ostensibly hoped would champion further rate cuts) said yesterday that he doesn’t see a reason for big rate cuts.

In addition to Fed-speak, economic data has had it’s fair share of impact this week, but many of those have been “offsetting penalties,” so to speak.  That is, they’ve pushed bonds both higher and lower.  Today’s data is no exception as both NFP and the ISM data are more than capable market movers.

Of the two, NFP is naturally the king of the hill.  Economists expect NFP to come in at 185k after a previous reading of 196k while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.8.  The consensus for the ISM non-manufacturing index is 57.0 after last month’s reading of 56.1.

2019-5-3 open

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