MBS Day Ahead: NFP May Very Well NOT be Enough to Break This Trend


Today’s chart is essentially the same chart we examined yesterday, but this time the only trendlines are those surrounding the most recent trend.  They mark the higher highs and higher lows since mid-April (a “trend channel”–one of the simplest technical approaches to market movement).  

I wouldn’t call this trend channel “well-developed” just yet, but it’s worth noting that we begin today’s trading session with almost perfectly equal distance between the top and the bottom of the channel.  That means NFP will have to have a fairly big positive or negative effect if we have any hope of seeing the channel challenged today.

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There is no other scheduled economic data on tap for today, so apart from any congressional headlines, bonds will be at the whim of post-NFP momentum.  As the morning progresses, we may see some pre-French-election positioning, but there’s no way to match up market movement with underlying data unless some new poll number or other election-related headline crosses newswires.

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