MBS Day Ahead: Not Another Crappy ‘Year-in-Review’


The only thing more tedious than of my technical explanations are those journalistic elements that you just KNOW are coming.  Let me explain.  Imagine a thief steals a bunch of watches, is unable to sell them, and subsequently returns them.  In that case, you know it won’t be long until every news headline is some iteration: Thief Unable to Live on Borrowed Time, etc.

More germane today would be the tendency to tie article headlines and themes into recurring events, such as holidays.  You know how those go.  Markets are spooked on Halloween, Originators are thankful on Thanksgiving, and hoping not to get lumps of coal at Christmas.

So with today being New Year’s Eve, we all know what’s coming–at least those of us who are actually reading the news today.  Ironically, and existentially, by virtue of taking 3 paragraphs to explicate the kitsch of this journalistic offense, I’ve become an offender myself.  So I might as well at least offer chart with a nice look back at the paths of Treasuries and Mortgage Rates in 2014. 

2017-12-30 year in review

On a more timely note, keep in mind that today is an early close for bond markets (2pm ET), but the unofficial close happened on December 19th.  That’s when markets tuned out and resolved not to tune back in until the first full week of January.  There are several pieces of economic data, but if they end up looking like they move markets, it would be pure coincidence.

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