MBS Day Ahead: Plenty to Hope For, but Little to be Sure About

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High-momentum trends can pause, reverse, or fizzle.  More often than not, the early stages of all three of those options look exactly the same.  It happens after a significant move in either direction (significance can depend on time, distance covered, and preceding circumstances, among other things).  The move first begins losing steam and then grinds indecisively sideways in a narrower range than the trading days that comprise the trend. 

In the case of a reversal, the move back to previous levels can be surprisingly swift.  The same is true in cases where those sideways days merely happened to be a pause (or ‘consolidation’) in a longer-term move.  The “fizzle” scenario is boring, and never really re-commits to either side of the trade.

US Bond markets (and even European markets) are certainly in one of these sideways slides that serve as a prelude to one of these three options.  Europe (represented in this chart by its bond market benchmark, German Bunds) is sideways in the BIG picture for the entire month of February.  Treasuries, on the other hand, are consolidating after the recent weakness, and on a smaller scale.  Either way, their next move should be more concerted.

2015-2-12 bunds

What we can hope for is that early February has been a correction of their relationship, driven by strong NFP data and new debt supply.  Even if there are/were other reasons, the widening shouldn’t get much worse in the short term.  That means the next move is the next move for everyone.  In that regard, we’re waiting for Monday to see if there are any new developments between Greece and Germany, err…. Europe I mean.

In and of themselves, Treasury technicals are more than ready to bounce if they get the slightest bit of positive inspiration.  If they don’t bounce, breaking higher over 2.04 would be very bad news.

2015-2-12 techs

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