This morning’s jobs report was stunningly weaker than expected, with NFP coming in at 74k vs a consensus forecast of 196k. As far as misses go, this was a big one, eclipsing the the last major example in April, when March’s NFP came in at 88k vs 200k. History may be the guide that’s preventing a more frenzied reaction as that 88k was ultimately revised to 176k two months later.
All that having been said, the reaction has still been strongly positive for bonds. 10yr yields are down to 2.88’s and Fannie 4.0s are up 20 ticks. But the news isn’t exclusively positive.
On a practical level, we can plainly see that 20 ticks (20/32nds) = .625. While it’s standard operating procedure for lenders not to pass along the full breadth of MBS gains right away, the relatively small improvements on some rate sheets (.125-.25) is disconcerting.
On a technical level, and looking specifically at Treasuries, it could also be disconcerting that we’re hitting resistance at 2.88, despite it being encouraging to break the longer-term uptrend.