MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Leak Back to Weakest Levels After NFP Bounce Attempt


If you’re just getting caught up with this morning’s events, first thing’s first: NFP was much stronger than expected (321k vs 230k forecast).  As with any 90k+ beat in the history of the economic world, bond markets sold off immediately.  But the ultimate severity of that sell-off struck many observers as being relatively mild compared to what the data might suggest.  10yr yields “only” rose to 2.33 before bouncing back down to 2.28.  Even in this morning’s Day Ahead, I discussed 2.35 as an upper end target in the case of a major beat (and this was certainly a major beat).

Although the initial sell-off was less intense and the bounce back was impressive, bond markets have been leaking back toward the day’s weakest levels ever since.  10yr yields are grinding up around 2.328 currently and Fannie 3.5s are down half a point at 103-20.  There hasn’t been any other data that’s meaningfully impacted trading levels. 

Unfortunately, more than a few lenders priced during the brief recovery and have since been forced to reprice.

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