MBS MID-DAY: Jar of Flies; Bond Markets Hit Both Sides


– Headline PMI 51.6 vs 56.0 Consensus
– Employment 57.8 vs 56.9 (highest since January)
– Prices paid 59.9 vs 55.3

The Chicago Business BarometerTM declined to 51.6 in June, the largest monthly drop since October 2008, and down from a 14-month high of 58.7 in May. The gyrations seen over the past few months are not typical for the Barometer and some of this might be attributable to the unseasonable weather conditions.

Of the five Business Activity measures which make up the Barometer, four declined with only the Employment indicator posting an increase. Order Backlogs plunged deep into contraction to the lowest level since September 2009 and was the single biggest drag on Barometer. Faster Supplier Delivery times and declines in Production and New Orders also contributed to the Barometer’s weakness.

Prices Paid posted the second consecutive monthly increase, following a lull in April, putting it back in line with levels seen at the start of the year.
Commenting on the MNI Chicago Report, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist at MNI Indicators said:

“Activity dropped back in June following the large rise in May. The trend level of the Barometer has picked up since the fourth quarter of 2012, and while these latest data point to some weakening between the first and second quarter, it is too early to say if this will continue.”

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