MBS MID-DAY: Volatility Within a Range Ahead of FOMC


Treasuries once again broke away from the pack in the overnight session and moved higher in yield.  Cues from related markets didn’t suggest that weakness, but we saw a similar move early Monday morning.  In both cases, yields had stretched down to recent lows in the previous day and overnight trading acted as a technical correction.

Looking at this another way, we could also conclude that the overnight session didn’t offer the same level of ‘fuel’ for an ongoing flight to safety.  As we’ve discussed on several occasions recently, the bond rally  requires a constant, fresh supply of disturbing global market developments in order to continue breaking new ground.  Instead, last night was pretty uneventful in the context of recent volatility.

Heading into the domestic session, we had weaker inflation data that ostensibly helped bond markets bounce back.  I wouldn’t read too much into that though, considering that the core CPI reading was right in line with forecasts.  Realistically, bond markets aren’t doing much at all this morning.  Zoom out to a slightly wider view and you’ll see a simple consolidation in prices and yields heading into today’s FOMC events.  MBS are trading perfectly inside yesterday’s range and are down less than an eighth of a point in both Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s. 

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