MBS MID-DAY: Weaker Despite GDP Miss, Settling In For FOMC


– Payrolls 192k vs 165k Consensus
– December Revised to 185k From 215k
– Market Reaction: Initially, bond markets extended morning weakness, but have since pulled back to their best levels of the domestic session (which are still slightly weaker than Tuesday’s closing levels).

Private sector employment increased by 192,000 jobs
from December to January, according to the January ADP National Employment Report, which is produced by ADP, a leading provider of human capital management services, in
collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The December 2012 report, which reported job gains of 215,000, was revised downward by 30,000 to 185,000 jobs.

“U.S. private sector employment got off to a good start in 2013, as 192,000 jobs were added during
the month of January,” noted Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.
“According to the ADP National Employment Report, private sector employers created an average of
183,000 new jobs per month during the last three months. This is an encouraging sign of steady
improvement in the job market.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is slowly, but steadily,
improving. Monthly job gains appear to have accelerated from near 150,000 to closer to
175,000. Construction is finally kicking into gear and more than offsetting the weakness in
manufacturing. The recent gains may be overstating any improvement, particularly in the
context of recent revivals in growth at the start of the past three years, but the gains are
encouraging nonetheless.”

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