MBS RECAP: 3/2/2012


There’s really nothing to report since this morning. We expected a quiet session and we’re getting one, but it’s our favorite version of “quiet” where MBS have unassumingly plodded along in generally strong fashion, but not so strong as to arouse concern of a bounce back.

Even then, the day is essentially over if volume is any indication, which surged into the 1015am Fed buybacks in 25yr+ Treasuries and has been tapering off ever since. 10yr yields are coasting out the door just under 1.98 having already put in the most important technical ceiling bounce at 2.014 (long term trend channel support) and MBS are trading over the important 103-10 pivot point, effectively REJECTING the breakout test from yesterday.

One can either thank Spain for this (both their lousy economy and their petulance about telling the EU how they’ll fix their lousy economy) or simply chalk it up to yesterday’s sell-off running it’s course in the technical framework–i.e. “play the range until the range plays you.”

If you didn’t catch it earlier or elsewhere, more details about Spain are in the following link as well as a visual explanation about what we mean when we say yesterday’s sell-off may have ran its course in the technical framework. (Particularly, note the intermediate term Treasury chart with the very regular sideways range with evenly spaced bounces along highs and lows. Was it just time for a bounce?)

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