Bond markets trudged farther into positive territory today, this time crossing into the best levels since December’s FOMC Announcement for MBS and since Christmas Eve for 10yr Treasuries. As far as MBS are concerned–and as one of today’s updates noted–to consider MBS at their best levels since FOMC is a bit misleading as we’re about to “roll” (meaning that January coupons are about to be retired and when we move to February coupons as the representative for “MBS Prices,” we’ll drop about 10/32nds). So “best in two weeks” is probably a more accurate assessment.
As expected, tradeflow considerations overpowered the economic data today. This fact was made all the more apparent by a rather meaningful ‘beat’ in the Trade Deficit (it was much narrower than expected) followed by a complete lack of reaction in bond markets. Instead, the improvements have gradually trickled into markets in equal proportion to trader participation.
This phenomenon stands its biggest chance of breaking down tomorrow morning as the data is important enough to be the primary motivation for rate movements. The focal point is the 8:15am ADP Employment Report in the morning and the FOMC Minutes in the afternoon (keep in mind that the “Minutes” release is simply a more detailed account of what went on at the December 18th meeting that produced the tapering announcement).