MBS RECAP: Bond Correction Now at 2.5 Days; Mortgages Outperform


Longer duration bonds got hit hard today.  Case in point, 30yr bonds are up nearly 13bps while 5’s are only up 6bps.  The better performances in the belly of the curve (3-5yr) helped MBS outperform the 10yr benchmark noticeably today.  10’s are heading out the door near levels that are quite a bit higher than yesterday’s highs.  MBS, on the other hand, are right in line with yesterday’s weakest levels.

The broader theme continued to set the tone as bond markets “correct” after  several days of market panic.  The correction began on Monday, but only the past 2 days have seen weaker day-over-day levels.  Today’s installment included the first day in 5 sessions where the Shanghai Stock Exchange didn’t close lower than the last session.  Domestic equities also continued to find their footing.  SPs closed near yesterday’s highs, but  they certainly aren’t trying to shoot the moon just yet.

Data and auctions were no help for bonds either.  Durable Goods were much stronger than expected, and the afternoon’s 5yr auction was rotten.   The latter overwhelmed what little benefit we had earlier in the day from dovish Fed comments (Dudley said a September hike was now “less compelling”).

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