Today turned out to be spooky, or at least ‘uninformative’ from a market-watching standpoint. Here we have an active trading day following a hotly-anticipated FOMC day and trading levels barely budge. Historically, these “day after big FOMC Announcement” days can be some of the biggest movers. The fact that we didn’t get anywhere close to that sort of movement today suggests a good amount of uncertainty about the response to recent events.
That might seem like an obvious statement, but it’s important in this case because the burgeoning consensus was that the next big market move would be all about the Fed. Now the Fed has come and gone and markets haven’t moved! Sure, they moved yesterday, but to no weaker levels than those seen 4-5 days ago.
In addition, economic data has been anything but inspiring. Markets just don’t care. There were big economic headlines to trade today and they barely produced a noticeable reaction in bond markets. Moreover, those reactions were reversed shortly thereafter.
So while we wait for some form of trading leadership to emerge from this current limbo, we can at least take heart in the fact that bond markets closed at slightly stronger levels today. MBS began the day in weaker territory, but took baby steps back up by 5pm, ultimately gaining 3/32nds over yesterday’s latest levels.