MBS RECAP: Bond Markets in ‘Holiday Drift’ Mode After Auction


Nothing much has changed since the mid-day commentary because bond markets had already effectively “left the building” after the 11:30am Treasury auction.  With just over an hour of trading time remaining, MBS are at their weakest levels of the day, but that doesn’t even bring Fannie 3.5s into negative territory. Treasuries and Fannie 3.0s are doing a bit better.

More importantly, none of this afternoon price action is meaningful.  Trades executed by human beings have been almost non-existent in the PM hours.  Now, I’ll be the first to remind you that an absence of volume doesn’t mean a drop in prices is irrelevant, but here’s the deal: either you’re going to lock today, or you’re not.  If you weren’t planning on locking today, there’s nothing about the currently mild afternoon weakness that should change your mind.  Of course if that weakness were to become something other than mild, it would be a tougher decision, but we’ll cross that bridge if we come to it (and we shouldn’t come to it).

As a reminder, financial markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, but are open for a completely nonsensical and borderline-infuriating half day on Friday.  It would be a surprise to see anything meaningful happen in markets before next Monday.  Happy Thanksgiving!

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