MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Move Mechanically Toward Exits


This is an unsatisfyingly ambiguous situation for reprice risk. Some lenders who were out with rates early enough in the day never saw prices move high enough for a positive reprice. Thus current prices aren’t low enough for them to be at high risk of repricing.

Other lenders who priced later in the morning did so near the highs of the day for MBS and we’re now a solid 6/32nds off those highs. This would normally be enough to consider ourselves on the edge of reprice risk, but the several instances of technical support around 101-20 in Fannie 3.5’s today and yesterday help lessen the immediacy of the risk.

They also serve as a good line in the sand for increased risk. Risk has moved from “unlikely” to “possible,” but wouldn’t become “probable” without a sustained or significant break below 101-20. Bottom line: can’t rule it out, but not time to count on it just yet.

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