MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Weather Today’s Data with Eye on Tomorrow’s


Money is flowing out of both stocks and bonds since 1:18pm. MBS are still about their lows seen in the 11am hour with Fannie 4.0s down 4 ticks on the day at 103-15. Meanwhile, 10yr yields are near session highs, currently up 2.5bps at 2.8662.

The weakness so far isn’t likely to prompt any negative reprices, but if 10’s take out their session highs at 2.872, we could see moderate, technically-motivated selling momentum that spills over into MBS. Reprice risk could increase in that case.

Bottom line, if you were planning on locking before NFP tomorrow, it’s looking less and less likely that you’ll see positive reprices.

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