MBS RECAP: Bond Prices Defy Gravity With Help From Oil/Stocks


We’re typically talking about “the bond market in terms of 10yr Treasury yields,” but in terms of PRICES, there was certainly some gravity in play coming into today.  This gravity lined up with the resistance level at 2.82% in yields.  In other words, the more yields fell toward 2.82%, the more resistance they’d likely experience.

The first 2 hours of the trading day made it look like the bounce at 2.82% was already in.  After coming close to breaking through the floor in overnight hours, bonds began the domestic session with a quick run up to 2.855%.  But the late morning hours sent yields right back to the floor with a combination of heavy losses in stocks and even heavier losses in oil.

In short, bond prices defied gravity.  This leaves us in the strongest part of the recent range heading into tomorrow’s Fed events.  Those events include the announcement itself, the Fed’s economic projections, and Powell’s press conference.  All 3 are in play as potential market movers with the projections probably packing the biggest punch.

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