MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Majority of Losses, but Can’t Get Past Friday’s Highs

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At one point, today looked like it could be nearly as anticlimactic for bond markets as 2nd goal for the–well… never mind.  Nothing is that anticlimactic.  And fortunately, Treasuries and MBS ended up bouncing back before things got too depressing.

The overnight session began with mixed-to-slightly-stronger global economic data.  Treasuries pulled back as equities rallied.  The absence of last week’s ‘month-end’ buying also seemed to be taking a toll in terms of drying up the innately supportive momentum seen on Friday.

Risk of anticlimactic disappointment peaked after the Incomes and Outlays data.  Although spending was weaker than expected, Income was stronger, and wage growth is a big deal right now.  Treasuries and MBS moved to the weakest levels of the day but bounced back as cash trading opened for stocks.  Gains continued after weaker ISM Manufacturing data and leveled off shortly thereafter.  The afternoon tone could be taken positively in that good technical support of 1.70 held up in 10yr yields, or negatively in the sense that bonds seemed to run into resistance at Friday’s best levels.

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