MBS RECAP: Bonds Forced to Stay in The Range

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Coming into today, bond markets were amped up.  UK 10yr yields hit new all-time lows yesterday.  German 10yr yields were close to hitting all-time lows.  And 10yr yields in the US looked like they would take another crack at the 1.52% range boundary (they’d broken below yesterday and needed to make gains today in order to “confirm”).  

But things went south almost right from the start.  There was no traction for bond markets in the overnight trading session–a fact that some traders blame on Japan being on vacation today.  European yields began rising right out of the gate.  That’s bad timing for us, because it makes it look like German 10yr yields are making yet another “higher low” leading up from early July’s all-time lows.  

Adding insult to injury was the fact that British yields managed to rally only to bounce right in line with yesterday’s all-time lows.  With that, the sense was quickly building that today would not be the day for Treasuries to attempt to confirm their range breakout.  

The cautionary feeling was only amplified by surging stock and oil prices.    The 30yr bond auction at 1pm was inconsequential as the tradeflow momentum steamrolled bonds right back into the previous range to await tomorrow’s Retail Sales.

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