MBS RECAP: Bonds Modestly Stronger, But Sideways Theme Remains

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Yesterday’s recap went into some detail about the market phenomenon that can result in intense periods of sideways momentum (and trader apathy) during certain weeks of certain summertime months.  Long-story short, this week was a great candidate for what some market participants refer to as the summer doldrums, and so far it is not disappointing.

Back in the day, we might have looked forward to another weekly release of Jobless Claims data, but it hasn’t been a market mover for quite some time.  FHFA Home Prices were also on the data calendar, and while we’ve never really looked to data that old (it applies to April) for trading level guidance, the results were nonetheless interesting to housing/mortgage market folks.  The FHFA clocked an increase in the annual pace of appreciation from 6.2% to 6.8%.  This time last year, most forecasts had that number in the 4-5% range.

There wasn’t much movement for bonds apart from small back-and-forth volatility in the morning.  Bonds rallied into the NYSE open and then returned to previous levels as the NYSE session progressed.  Overnight highs in 10yr Treasury yields served as a nice ceiling at 2.167 and bonds gradually moved back toward the morning’s best levels by the close.  None of the above was worth much drama from lenders, although there was a bit of negative reprice risk in the late morning hours.

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