MBS RECAP: Bonds More Willing to Listen to Stocks’ Sob Story

Yesterday was ‘neat‘ for a while–at least in the morning hours when massive stock losses helped bonds achieve their best levels in weeks.  Then stocks bounced in the afternoon and most of the bond market gains were erased.

Today was a carbon copy in many regards although the stock selling was more abrupt.  It also never enjoyed the same sort of bounce seen yesterday.   The bond market seemed more eager to capitalize.  Bonds were already rallying ahead of the 9:30am NYSE open, even as stocks were holding mostly steady.  After 9:30am, it was ‘game-on’ for stock sellers and bond buyers.  The ensuing 90 minutes saw big moves on both sides of the market.

Unlike yesterday, however, the afternoon proved to be a continuation of the morning trend. with stocks and bond yields plumbing new depths starting shortly after the 3pm CME close.  

10yr yields briefly broke the important 3.11% level and importantly broke the 3.13% technical level.  Moreover, there were numerous bounces against 3.13% as a ceiling after it was broken–a good sign from a technical standpoint and suggestive of a repositioning among bond traders.  That said, any major bounce in stocks could easily overwhelm the shift in bonds and bring us right back into the prevailing October range.  The next few days will be exciting to watch.

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/881353.aspx

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