For those who pay any sort of attention to technicals or simply to “key levels” in the bond market, Friday was the gloomiest day we’ve had in a while. It was the first time that a major overhead ceiling had been broken in more than 2 weeks of mostly sideways momentum. The level in question–2.75% in 10yr yields–wasn’t the most important technical level in the world, but it had seen no less than 6 bounces since December 31st. Ending the week near 2.79% meant it was likely defeated barring a surprisingly strong showing over the weekend.
There was a surprisingly strong showing over the weekend! Rather, the strength began late last night as Asian markets began losing ground. Stock losses spilled over into US markets and ultimately helped bonds pick up enough ground to call the 2.75% breakout into question. By 1pm, US stock losses had accelerated enough to get 10yr yields back down below 2.73%. They wouldn’t be able to remain there by the end of the day, but simply hitting the 3pm CME close at 2.734% is a big victory relative to last Friday’s “duck and cover” game plan.
Uncertainties surrounding trade deals and government shutdown plans remain, but at the very least, bonds are willing to stick around this range and fight it out as long as stocks aren’t finding reasons to continue rallying like they did last week.