MBS RECAP: Bonds Stay in Solid Shape Despite Morning Weakness


The overnight trading session was thinly-traded due to a holiday closure in Tokyo.  Buyers outnumbered sellers until the domestic session.  Promptly after the 820am CME Open, sellers showed up in US Treasuries.  Bond market weakness radiated out from there.  By the end of the day, it would become more clear that some of the selling was related to corporate debt hedging (read more about why that matters HERE).

Bonds were weaker throughout the morning hours, and then leveled off after European markets closed.  It’s not uncommon to see Treasuries level-off or reverse course right after European bond markets close.  This can happen for a variety of reasons although it can be as simple as a sudden drop in market participation that happens when only one of the three continental areas is trading (Asia, Europe, or the Americas).

There were no significant economic reports today, but we did get a few bullet points from the newer Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, who said the December rate hike was the right call but softening data means the Fed can take some decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.  He added his 2 cents on the balance sheet, saying the Fed wouldn’t hesitate to adjust it if needed. 

The day ended with bonds effectively unchanged after being moderately stronger right at the open.  Both of our bullish targets were tested in 10yr yields (2.66 and 2.69).  Neither was broken (as that would require yields remaining underneath those targets at least through today’s close, and officially for 2 consecutive closes).

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